How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
About Market
This market centers on the total number of earthquakes measuring magnitude 5.5 or greater recorded worldwide during the seven-day window running from 24 August 2026 to 30 August 2026, an outcome-based count of global seismic activity over a fixed period. A weekly tally of moderate-to-strong earthquakes serves as a meaningful focal point because seismic release at this magnitude is frequent enough to vary from week to week yet significant enough to be catalogued and monitored by international agencies, making the running count a clean, observable measure of the planet's baseline activity. Traders are assessing the likelihood of where the final worldwide count will land across the specified thresholds, weighing typical global rates against the inherent unpredictability of when and where qualifying earthquakes strike within the window.
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Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if the total number of qualifying earthquakes recorded worldwide during the window equals exactly 9; it resolves NO if that total is any other value. A Tie is possible only under Rule 5; in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
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Definition of a Qualifying Earthquake: Any earthquake recorded anywhere on Earth with a USGS preferred magnitude of 5.5 or greater whose origin time falls between 24 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC and 30 August 2026 at 23:59 UTC, inclusive. A magnitude of exactly 5.5 counts; anything below 5.5 is excluded. Each distinct event is counted once; separate foreshocks or aftershocks each count only if they independently reach magnitude 5.5.
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Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source is the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov). Secondary sources (e.g. EMSC or a national seismological agency) are used for corroboration only, and only if USGS data is unavailable.
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Resolution Timing: The count is finalized after the window closes. The market resolves no sooner than 24 hours after the window close, i.e. no earlier than 31 August 2026 at 23:59 UTC, to allow for magnitude revisions to events recorded on the final day.
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Handling Revisions, Reporting Delays and Ties: If a substantial qualifying event occurred within the window but has not yet appeared on USGS, the market may remain open until it appears or until 2 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC, after which a credible alternative source may be used. Final resolution uses the latest USGS preferred magnitude. If the count cannot be established from USGS or a credible alternative after this period, the market resolves TIE and all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
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Ambiguities and Disputes: An earthquake's origin time (not its reporting time) determines whether it falls within the window. Where sources disagree, the USGS preferred magnitude and catalog entry at the time of final resolution are authoritative. All times in these rules are expressed in UTC.
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
About Market
This market centers on the total number of earthquakes measuring magnitude 5.5 or greater recorded worldwide during the seven-day window running from 24 August 2026 to 30 August 2026, an outcome-based count of global seismic activity over a fixed period. A weekly tally of moderate-to-strong earthquakes serves as a meaningful focal point because seismic release at this magnitude is frequent enough to vary from week to week yet significant enough to be catalogued and monitored by international agencies, making the running count a clean, observable measure of the planet's baseline activity. Traders are assessing the likelihood of where the final worldwide count will land across the specified thresholds, weighing typical global rates against the inherent unpredictability of when and where qualifying earthquakes strike within the window.
-
Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if the total number of qualifying earthquakes recorded worldwide during the window equals exactly 9; it resolves NO if that total is any other value. A Tie is possible only under Rule 5; in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
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Definition of a Qualifying Earthquake: Any earthquake recorded anywhere on Earth with a USGS preferred magnitude of 5.5 or greater whose origin time falls between 24 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC and 30 August 2026 at 23:59 UTC, inclusive. A magnitude of exactly 5.5 counts; anything below 5.5 is excluded. Each distinct event is counted once; separate foreshocks or aftershocks each count only if they independently reach magnitude 5.5.
-
Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source is the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov). Secondary sources (e.g. EMSC or a national seismological agency) are used for corroboration only, and only if USGS data is unavailable.
-
Resolution Timing: The count is finalized after the window closes. The market resolves no sooner than 24 hours after the window close, i.e. no earlier than 31 August 2026 at 23:59 UTC, to allow for magnitude revisions to events recorded on the final day.
-
Handling Revisions, Reporting Delays and Ties: If a substantial qualifying event occurred within the window but has not yet appeared on USGS, the market may remain open until it appears or until 2 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC, after which a credible alternative source may be used. Final resolution uses the latest USGS preferred magnitude. If the count cannot be established from USGS or a credible alternative after this period, the market resolves TIE and all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
-
Ambiguities and Disputes: An earthquake's origin time (not its reporting time) determines whether it falls within the window. Where sources disagree, the USGS preferred magnitude and catalog entry at the time of final resolution are authoritative. All times in these rules are expressed in UTC.
