This market centers on the total number of magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes recorded worldwide during the week spanning 31 August to 6 September 2026, framing seismic activity as a countable outcome measured against defined numerical bands. A single week of global seismicity serves as a meaningful focal point because earthquakes of this magnitude occur at an irregular but statistically patterned rate, making the weekly tally a natural benchmark for gauging how active or quiet the planet's crust has been relative to its long-run average. Traders are assessing the relative likelihood that the final count falls into each band, weighing baseline global rates, recent aftershock sequences, and the tendency of large events to cluster as they judge where the week's total will land.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves Yes if the total number of qualifying earthquakes (defined in Rule 2) recorded worldwide during the counting window is more than 13 (14 or more), and No if that total is 13 or fewer. A Tie applies only under the conditions in Rule 5, in which case all positions settle at $0.50 per share.

2. Definition of "Qualifying Earthquake" and "Counting Window": A qualifying earthquake is any single event listed in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program catalog with a reported magnitude of 5.5 or greater (a reading of exactly 5.5 qualifies) whose origin time falls within the counting window, counted anywhere on Earth and at any depth. The counting window runs from 31 August 2026, 04:00 UTC (00:00 US Eastern Time on 31 August 2026) through 7 September 2026, 03:59 UTC (23:59 US Eastern Time on 6 September 2026), measured by each event's origin time. Each distinct catalog event counts once, including foreshocks and aftershocks; entries later deleted or merged by USGS are not counted.

3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary and definitive resolution source is the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program catalog at earthquake.usgs.gov, using its reported magnitude and origin time for each event. Where the USGS record is temporarily incomplete, the catalog of the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (emsc-csem.org) may be used for corroboration only; the USGS record governs in any discrepancy.

4. Resolution Timing: The final count is taken from the reviewed USGS catalog, and the market resolves no sooner than 24 hours after the counting window closes, allowing time for late catalog entries and magnitude revisions. If a qualifying event occurs on the final day and its magnitude is still under review, resolution may wait until USGS publishes a reviewed magnitude for that event.

5. Data Revisions, Source Outages, and Borderline Readings: Resolution uses the USGS magnitude of record at the resolution time; provisional magnitudes revised across the 5.5 line before resolution are counted at their reviewed value, and revisions published after resolution do not reopen settlement. An event whose reviewed magnitude is exactly 5.5 is counted. If the USGS catalog is unavailable at the resolution time, resolution waits until it is restored, up to the buffer in Rule 4; only if no count can be established from the primary or secondary source after that buffer does the market resolve Tie, with all positions settling at O$0.50 per share.

6. Ambiguities and Disputes: In any conflict between sources, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program catalog takes precedence. Duplicate listings for the same physical event are counted once; multiple distinct events sharing an epicentral region are each counted separately. Any count derived from provisional data under active USGS revision remains unresolved until USGS publishes its reviewed value.