How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
About Market
This market centers on how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater will be recorded worldwide during the seven-day window running from 14 September to 20 September 2026, framing global seismic activity as a single countable, outcome-based total. That specific week serves as a defined focal point for gauging the planet's short-term seismic behavior, converting the inherently unpredictable timing of moderate-to-large earthquakes into a bounded, verifiable tally drawn from an authoritative geological record. Traders are assessing the likelihood that the final count of qualifying magnitude 5.5-plus events lands at each possible total, weighing historical weekly frequencies, ongoing activity along major fault systems, and the episodic, clustered nature of significant earthquakes against the fixed boundaries of this observation period.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: Resolves YES if the total number of qualifying earthquakes worldwide during the window is 6 or fewer (any value from 0 to 6 inclusive); resolves NO if that total is 7 or more. A Tie is possible only under Rule 5.
- Definition of a Qualifying Earthquake: Any earthquake recorded anywhere on Earth with a USGS preferred magnitude of 5.5 or greater whose origin time falls between 14 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC and 20 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC, inclusive. A magnitude of exactly 5.5 counts; anything below 5.5 is excluded. Each distinct event is counted once; separate foreshocks or aftershocks each count only if they independently reach magnitude 5.5.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source is the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov). Secondary sources (e.g. EMSC or a national seismological agency) are used for corroboration only, and only if USGS data is unavailable.
- Resolution Timing: The count is finalized after the window closes. The market resolves no sooner than 24 hours after the window close, i.e. no earlier than 21 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC, to allow for magnitude revisions to events recorded on the final day.
- Handling Revisions, Reporting Delays and Ties: If a substantial qualifying event occurred within the window but has not yet appeared on USGS, the market may remain open until it appears or until 23 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC, after which a credible alternative source may be used. Final resolution uses the latest USGS preferred magnitude. If the count cannot be established from USGS or a credible alternative after this period, the market resolves TIE and all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: An earthquake's origin time (not its reporting time) determines whether it falls within the window. Where sources disagree, the USGS preferred magnitude and catalog entry at the time of final resolution are authoritative. All times in these rules are expressed in UTC.
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
About Market
This market centers on how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater will be recorded worldwide during the seven-day window running from 14 September to 20 September 2026, framing global seismic activity as a single countable, outcome-based total. That specific week serves as a defined focal point for gauging the planet's short-term seismic behavior, converting the inherently unpredictable timing of moderate-to-large earthquakes into a bounded, verifiable tally drawn from an authoritative geological record. Traders are assessing the likelihood that the final count of qualifying magnitude 5.5-plus events lands at each possible total, weighing historical weekly frequencies, ongoing activity along major fault systems, and the episodic, clustered nature of significant earthquakes against the fixed boundaries of this observation period.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: Resolves YES if the total number of qualifying earthquakes worldwide during the window is 6 or fewer (any value from 0 to 6 inclusive); resolves NO if that total is 7 or more. A Tie is possible only under Rule 5.
- Definition of a Qualifying Earthquake: Any earthquake recorded anywhere on Earth with a USGS preferred magnitude of 5.5 or greater whose origin time falls between 14 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC and 20 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC, inclusive. A magnitude of exactly 5.5 counts; anything below 5.5 is excluded. Each distinct event is counted once; separate foreshocks or aftershocks each count only if they independently reach magnitude 5.5.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source is the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov). Secondary sources (e.g. EMSC or a national seismological agency) are used for corroboration only, and only if USGS data is unavailable.
- Resolution Timing: The count is finalized after the window closes. The market resolves no sooner than 24 hours after the window close, i.e. no earlier than 21 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC, to allow for magnitude revisions to events recorded on the final day.
- Handling Revisions, Reporting Delays and Ties: If a substantial qualifying event occurred within the window but has not yet appeared on USGS, the market may remain open until it appears or until 23 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC, after which a credible alternative source may be used. Final resolution uses the latest USGS preferred magnitude. If the count cannot be established from USGS or a credible alternative after this period, the market resolves TIE and all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: An earthquake's origin time (not its reporting time) determines whether it falls within the window. Where sources disagree, the USGS preferred magnitude and catalog entry at the time of final resolution are authoritative. All times in these rules are expressed in UTC.
