This market centers on the WNBA regular-season game between the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury on 1 August 2026, a single-game matchup in which one franchise takes the win and the other absorbs the loss. The matchup is a meaningful focal point because it is an inter-conference meeting with playoff seeding at stake in the second half of the season. Traders are assessing the relative likelihood that each team is officially recorded as the winner of the completed game, weighing recent form, head-to-head history, roster availability, and home-court advantage as the two sides meet in an evening tip-off.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market has exactly two outcomes — New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury — and resolves to whichever team is officially recorded as the winner of the completed game. There is no draw or tie outcome for the result itself, as overtime is played until a winner is determined; a Tie resolution applies only under the postponement and cancellation conditions in Rule 5, in which event all positions settle at $0.50 per share.

2. Definition of "Winner" and "Completed Game": The winning outcome is the team credited with the victory in the official WNBA box score once the game reaches a status of Final or Final/OT. A win counts whether achieved in regulation or overtime, and whether decided by play or by an official forfeit/administrative award; in a forfeit, the team awarded the result by the WNBA is the winner.

3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the official WNBA scores and results service at https://www.wnba.com/scores for the final game result. Secondary sources for corroboration only: ESPN and Basketball-Reference. The official WNBA record is definitive in the event of any discrepancy and cannot be overridden by secondary reporting.

4. Resolution Timing: The market resolves once the official final result is confirmed on wnba.com, with a resolution buffer of no sooner than 3 hours after the final score is posted. Based on the scheduled tip-off , the result is expected to be confirmed and the market resolved by the market end time; all open positions are locked through to resolution.

5. Handling Postponements and Cancellations: If the game is postponed or suspended, the market remains open and the resolution deadline extends in line with the league's official rescheduling. If the game is not completed within 24 hours of the scheduled tip-off, or is cancelled and not rescheduled within that window, the market resolves to Tie, and in the event of a Tie resolution all positions settle at $0.50 per share. A suspended game that later resumes is settled on its final official result.

6. Protests and Administrative Reviews: Post-game protests, statistical corrections, or administrative reviews do not affect resolution unless the WNBA officially overturns the recorded result. If an official overturn occurs before resolution, the corrected result is used; once the market has resolved, settlement stands.

7. Ambiguities and Disputes: In the event of conflicting result reports between sources, the official WNBA record takes precedence. If the primary source is unavailable at resolution time, a consensus of the two secondary sources is used. Any result under active official protest or review remains unresolved until the WNBA issues a final ruling.