This market centers on which price levels the active month WTI Crude Oil futures contract will reach before the close of trading on July 31, 2026, measuring the benchmark against a ladder of thresholds set both above and below its prevailing range. The end of July serves as a meaningful checkpoint for the world's most closely watched crude benchmark, capping a month in which OPEC+ production policy, U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory data, shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and geopolitical risk premiums across the Middle East have all pulled on the price. Traders are assessing the likelihood and timing of the official CME settlement price crossing each threshold, turning the remaining eligible trading days of the month into a set of clearly defined, order-based outcomes.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "YES" if the official CME settlement price of the CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract is at or above $100 per barrel on any eligible trading day from 00:00 UTC July 21, 2026 through 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026. It resolves to "NO" if no official settlement price at or above $100 is recorded within that window. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
2. Definition of Active Month and Settlement Price: The "CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract" refers to the nearest designated delivery month that is not the spot month, as defined by CME Group on each eligible trading day. The "official settlement price" refers exclusively to the daily settlement value published by CME Group for that contract; intraday prices, highs, lows, last trades, bid/ask quotes, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not qualify under any circumstances.
3. Handling Contract Roll: If the CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract rolls during the evaluation period, the next eligible contract automatically becomes the Active Month. All determinations are made using the contract that qualifies as Active Month on that specific trading day, with no averaging or carryover between contracts.
4. Official Sources and Evidence: The authoritative source for resolution is Pyth, specifically the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures price data available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Prices are used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Historical data may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp in seconds to the Pyth chart URL using the t= parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official price published by CME Group for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract will be used instead. Other secondary data providers may be used only for temporary reference and cannot override the Pyth record under any circumstance.
5. Eligible Trading Days: Only trading days falling within the window on which CME Group publishes an official settlement price for the CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract are eligible. Weekends, exchange holidays, or any day without an official settlement publication are excluded from consideration.
6. Resolution Timing: The market is evaluated after each eligible trading day and resolves immediately once a qualifying settlement price at or above $100 is published. If no qualifying settlement occurs, the market resolves to "NO" as soon as reasonably practical after 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026.
7. Ambiguities and Disputes: If any ambiguity arises regarding the applicable contract, settlement value, or publication timing, the price data published by Pyth takes precedence, with CME Group's official records and definitions applying only where Pyth data is unavailable. In any remaining unclear case, the outcome will be determined strictly using the Pyth-published price for the CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract as defined in these rules.