This market centers on which price levels the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust will reach before the close of trading on July 31, 2026, measuring the fund against a ladder of thresholds set both above and below its prevailing range. The end of July serves as a natural checkpoint for the most heavily traded equity vehicle in the United States, closing out a month in which Federal Reserve policy expectations, quarterly corporate earnings from index heavyweights, and the broader trajectory of inflation and labor market data have all shaped the direction of large-cap equities. Traders are assessing the likelihood and timing of the fund's official daily closing price crossing each threshold, turning the remaining trading sessions of the month into a series of clearly defined, order-based outcomes.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to "YES" if the NYSE Arca Official Closing Price of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker: SPY) is at or above $770 on any eligible trading day from 00:00 UTC July 21, 2026 through 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026. It resolves to "NO" if no official closing price is at or above $770 within that window. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
2. Definition of Instrument and Closing Price: This market resolves on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), the NYSE Arca-listed exchange-traded fund, and not on the S&P 500 index level itself. "Closing price" refers to the NYSE Arca Official Closing Price for SPY at the end of regular trading hours (normally 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time, 20:00 UTC). Intraday highs, lows, last trades, after-hours prices, and pre-market prices do not qualify under any circumstances.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: Resolution is based on the price data published by Pyth for S&P 500 (SPY), available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Prices are used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Historical data may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp in seconds to the Pyth chart URL using the t= parameter (e.g. https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000). If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official price published by NYSE Arca, the primary exchange on which SPY trades, will be used instead. Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, and MarketWatch may be used for verification only and cannot override the Pyth record in case of discrepancy.
4. Resolution Timing: The market is reviewed after each eligible NYSE Arca trading day in the window and resolves immediately once an official closing price at or above $770 is published. If no qualifying close occurs, the market resolves to "NO" as soon as reasonably practical after 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026.
5. Eligible Trading Days and Closures: Only regular NYSE Arca trading days falling within the window are considered. Weekends, exchange holidays, and any day without a published official closing price are excluded; shortened sessions count if an official closing price is published. If a trading halt or circuit breaker prevents publication of an official close, observation defers to the next eligible trading day.
6. Distributions, Splits, and Data Revisions: Thresholds are measured against the official closing price as published on the day, unadjusted for dividends or distributions; retroactively dividend-adjusted price series do not apply. In the event of a share split or reverse split of SPY during the window, the officially adjusted closing price published by NYSE Arca will be used. If NYSE Arca formally revises a closing price prior to resolution, the revised value governs; otherwise the first-published value is final.
7. Ambiguities and Disputes: If any ambiguity arises regarding the applicable trading day, closing value, or publication timing, the price data published by Pyth takes precedence, with NYSE Arca's official records and definitions applying only where Pyth data is unavailable. In any remaining unclear case, the outcome is determined strictly using the Pyth-published price for SPY as defined in these rules.