This market centers on which price levels the active month WTI Crude Oil futures contract will reach before the close of trading on August 31, 2026, measuring the benchmark against a ladder of thresholds set both above and below its prevailing range. The end of August serves as a meaningful checkpoint for the world's most closely watched crude benchmark, capping a month in which OPEC+ production policy, U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory data, shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and geopolitical risk premiums across the Middle East have all pulled on the price. Traders are assessing the likelihood and timing of the official CME settlement price crossing each threshold, turning the remaining eligible trading days of the month into a set of clearly defined, order-based outcomes.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "YES" if, at any point from 00:00 UTC 3 August 2026 through the close of the final eligible trading session, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract records a final "High" price at or above $85 per barrel. It resolves to "NO" if no qualifying 1-minute candle High is recorded within that window, or if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during that window. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
2. Definition of a Qualifying Touch: A "qualifying touch" is the final "High" value of any completed 1-minute candle for the Active Month contract, taken exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A single 1-minute candle is sufficient — no settlement, close, or sustained move is required — and daily settlement prices, opening or closing prices, bid/ask quotes, midpoints, and indicative prices are not used to determine whether the threshold was reached. Candle Highs printed outside an eligible trading session, including during the daily 5:00 PM–6:00 PM ET break and weekend closures, do not qualify.
3. Eligible Trading Sessions: Only prices achieved during an applicable CME trading session count. Under the standard schedule, the session for a given business day begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date and runs to 5:00 PM ET, with trading open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday and a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours published by CME Group. Eligible sessions are those for business days 3 August 2026 through 31 August 2026: the first eligible price is one printed at or after 00:00 UTC 3 August 2026, and the last is one printed at 5:00 PM ET 31 August 2026 (21:00 UTC). The session for 1 September 2026, which opens at 6:00 PM ET on 31 August 2026, is excluded.
4. Definition of Active Month and Contract Roll: The "Active Month" is the nearest listed WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract, except that it changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session — that is, for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the next listed contract is the Active Month. Per CME contract specifications, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding its delivery month, or four business days prior if the 25th is not a business day. Applied to this window: the September 2026 contract's last trading session is Thursday 20 August 2026, and the October 2026 contract becomes the Active Month at the start of the session for Tuesday 18 August 2026 (opening 6:00 PM ET Monday 17 August 2026). All determinations use the contract that is Active Month at the moment the candle prints, with no averaging or carryover between contracts.
5. Official Sources and Evidence: The authoritative source for resolution is Pyth, specifically the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp in seconds to the Pyth chart URL using the t= parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by CME Group for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during this window, resolution is based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. Other secondary data providers may be used for temporary reference only and cannot override the Pyth record under any circumstance.
6. Resolution Timing: The market is monitored continuously across eligible trading sessions and resolves immediately once a qualifying 1-minute candle High at or above $85 is recorded on Pyth. If no qualifying candle occurs, the market resolves to "NO" as soon as reasonably practical after 23:59 UTC 31 August 2026.
7. Ambiguities and Disputes: If any ambiguity arises regarding the applicable contract, candle value, session boundary, or publication timing, the 1-minute candle data published by Pyth takes precedence, with CME Group's official records, trading calendar, and contract definitions applying only where Pyth data is unavailable. In any remaining unclear case, the outcome will be determined strictly using the Pyth-published 1-minute candle High/Low for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract as defined in these rules.