This market centers on whether Kuching's official Air Pollutant Index (API) will climb above 250 by 10 September 2026, deep inside the band Malaysia's Department of Environment classifies as Very Unhealthy and within reach of the 300 mark that triggers the Hazardous label. Kuching has been at the centre of Sarawak's severe haze episode, recording 407 on 1 September 2026 and readings near 300 on 3 and 4 September before easing to the low 190s by the morning of 7 September as Kalimantan hotspot counts fell and cloud-seeding flights resumed. Traders are assessing the likelihood that renewed burning across the border, dry southwesterly winds and El Niño conditions push the Kuching station back above 250 within the window, or whether forecast showers keep the decline intact.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: Resolves YES if at least one Qualifying Reading (Rule 2) of 251 or higher is published for the Kuching station during the observation window; resolves NO if every Qualifying Reading in the window is 250 or lower. A Tie is possible only under Rule 5; in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
2. Definition of a Qualifying Reading: A Qualifying Reading is the hourly Air Pollutant Index (API) value published by Malaysia's Department of Environment (DOE) for the monitoring station listed as "Kuching" (Sarawak), station ID CA65Q on the APIMS portal, timestamped from 7 September 2026 at 23:59 MYT through 10 September 2026 at 23:59 Malaysia time (10 September 2026, 15:59 UTC), inclusive. A reading of exactly 250 does not count. Readings from any other station (including Samarahan, Serian, Sri Aman or Sarikei), US AQI or other foreign index values shown on third-party sites, raw PM2.5 concentrations, and forecasts do not count.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source is the DOE Air Pollutant Index Management System (APIMS) at https://eqms.doe.gov.my/APIMS/main, with the MyJAS EQMS mobile app treated as the same source. Secondary sources, used for corroboration only, are hourly APIMS readings for Kuching as reported by Bernama, The Star or Malay Mail, and the DOE-attributed Kuching station pages on aqicn.org and iqair.com; because those two sites convert DOE data to the US AQI scale, their headline numbers are not API values and cannot substitute for one.
4. Resolution Timing: APIMS is checked hourly throughout the window. If a Qualifying Reading of 251 or higher is published, the market resolves YES no sooner than 24 hours after that reading is published, so that any DOE correction can be taken into account. If no such reading is published, the market resolves NO no sooner than 24 hours after the last hour of the window.
5. Handling Data Gaps, Corrections and Ties: A reading is taken as displayed on APIMS at the time of publication; if DOE publicly corrects a reading before resolution, the corrected value governs. Hours for which APIMS shows no value for Kuching (blank, "**" or a station-offline marker) are treated as having no Qualifying Reading, unless a secondary source reports the official APIMS value for that hour. If APIMS publishes no Kuching reading for 36 consecutive hours or more within the window and no secondary source confirms the official values, the market resolves TIE and all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
6. Ambiguities and Disputes: Where sources disagree, the value displayed on APIMS for the Kuching station prevails. Thresholds refer to the Malaysian API scale, on which 201–300 is Very Unhealthy and 301 and above is Hazardous, and not to any other index. If DOE renames or relocates the Kuching station, its replacement designated for Kuching city on APIMS is used. Times in these rules are stated in Malaysia time (UTC+8) with UTC equivalents; the UTC values govern.