This market centers on whether Malaysia's weekly-set unsubsidised RON95 petrol price will move higher for the week of 17 to 23 September 2026 than the level in force the week before. The unsubsidised RON95 price is the floating general-market rate that has applied since the pump price was released from its administered ceiling, and it now serves as the clearest weekly read on how global refined product costs and the ringgit feed through to Malaysian consumers, with the targeted subsidy absorbing the difference for eligible buyers. Traders are weighing crude and regional gasoline benchmarks across the pricing formula's calculation period, the risk premium attached to Middle East supply routes, and whether the sharp step taken in the prior week extends further or unwinds.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if the unsubsidised RON95 petrol price published for the week beginning 17 September 2026 is strictly greater than RM4.02 per litre. It resolves NO if that price is RM4.02 or lower — a price that is unchanged at RM4.02 resolves NO, as an unchanged price is not an increase. It resolves to Tie only under the conditions in Rule 5; in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
2. Definition of "Unsubsidised RON95 Price" and "Increase": The "unsubsidised RON95 price" is the floating general-market price recorded in the ron95 variable of the Price of Petroleum & Diesel dataset, taken from the row where series_type is level and date is 2026-09-17. This is the price paid by buyers not eligible for a targeted subsidy scheme. The ron95_budi95 variable (the subsidised rate for eligible individuals) and the ron95_skps variable (the rate for eligible commercial vehicles) are administratively fixed, are not the floating market price, and play no part in resolution. The baseline is RM4.02, being the ron95 level for date 2026-09-10. Prices are published in ringgit to two decimal places; an "increase" means the published figure exceeds the baseline by at least one sen, so RM4.03 or above resolves YES and RM4.02 or below resolves NO.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: The authoritative source is the Price of Petroleum & Diesel dataset published by the Department of Statistics Malaysia at https://open.dosm.gov.my/data-catalogue/fuelprice, and its machine-readable distributions at https://storage.data.gov.my/commodities/fuelprice.csv and https://storage.data.gov.my/commodities/fuelprice.parquet. The Ministry of Finance weekly press statement on the retail price of petroleum products may be used to corroborate the figure, and is the fallback under Rule 5. Reports from news outlets, fuel price aggregator sites, and retailer pump displays may be used for temporary reference only and cannot override the dataset.
4. Resolution Timing: The specified source is checked from the scheduled publication of the week's figure, which the dataset lists for 16 September 2026, 15:59 UTC. The market resolves once the ron95 level for date 2026-09-17 appears on the specified source, and no sooner than 24 hours after that figure is first published, allowing for correction of a publication error before settlement.
5. Handling Delays, Revisions and Data Gaps: Where the dataset revises the ron95 level for date 2026-09-17 within the 24-hour period in Rule 4, the revised figure governs; once the market has resolved, settlement stands. If the dataset has not published that figure within 24 hours of its scheduled publication — including where