Will any Malaysian city record API above 300 from 11 to 30 September 2026?
About Market
Summary: This market centers on whether any monitoring location in Malaysia will register an Air Pollutant Index reading above 300 across the closing weeks of September 2026, the level at which national haze management procedures allow a state of emergency to be proposed for the affected area. Late September sits at the tail of the Southwest Monsoon, the dry window in which transboundary smoke from regional land and forest fires has historically driven readings across Sarawak, Sabah and the Klang Valley through the unhealthy and very unhealthy bands, making the end of the month a natural checkpoint for the severity of a haze season. Traders are assessing the likelihood that the current episode reintensifies far enough to breach the threshold that triggers Malaysia's most serious haze response.
1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if at least one qualifying API reading above 300 is published for any eligible station during the observation window running from 11 September 2026, 16:00 UTC through 30 September 2026, 15:59 UTC. It resolves NO if no such reading is published within that window. It resolves to Tie only under the conditions in Rule 5; in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
2. Definition of a Qualifying Reading: A qualifying reading is any hourly Air Pollutant Index (API) value published for a Department of Environment air quality monitoring station in Malaysia that is strictly greater than 300. API values are published as whole numbers, so the lowest qualifying value is 301; a reading of exactly 300 does not qualify. For the purposes of this market, "any Malaysian city" means any of the Department of Environment monitoring stations listed on the specified source, across all states and federal territories, whether the station's locality is a city, town, district or industrial area. A single hourly reading at a single station is sufficient — no sustained duration, no daily average, and no minimum number of stations is required. Readings published for stations outside Malaysia, and index values produced by any scale other than Malaysia's API, do not qualify. A declaration of emergency, school closure, or any other official response is neither required nor sufficient for resolution.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: The authoritative source for resolution is the Air Pollutant Index Management System (APIMS) operated by the Department of Environment Malaysia at https://eqms.doe.gov.my/APIMS/main, including its hourly readings and archived hourly tables. Official statements or data published directly by the Department of Environment Malaysia or the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability may corroborate a reading where the portal record is incomplete. News reports, third-party air quality apps, and readings converted from AQI, PM2.5 or PM10 figures may be used for temporary reference only and cannot override the APIMS record.
4. Resolution Timing: The specified source is monitored throughout the observation window and the market resolves YES as soon as a qualifying reading above 300 is published for any eligible station. If no qualifying reading is published, the market resolves NO no sooner than 24 hours after the observation window closes, allowing for late publication or correction of readings from the final hours of the window.
5. Handling Revisions, Data Gaps and Ties: Where APIMS revises or restates an hourly reading, the value shown on the specified source at the time of resolution governs; a reading that is published above 300 and subsequently corrected downward before resolution does not qualify. Station outages, maintenance gaps, and hours displayed without a numeric value are treated as containing no qualifying reading and do not extend the window. It resolves Tie if the portal is unavailable and no official Department of Environment record establishes the hourly readings for the window within 24 hours of the window's close, leaving the outcome genuinely undetermined; in that event all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
6. Ambiguities and Disputes: The hour to which a reading is attributed by APIMS, not the time it is retrieved or reported, determines whether it falls within the observation window. Where APIMS and any secondary source disagree, the APIMS record is definitive. Where APIMS itself displays conflicting values for the same station and hour, the value shown in the archived hourly table takes precedence over a live dashboard display. A change to Malaysia's API calculation methodology during the window does not alter the threshold; readings are taken as published under whichever methodology APIMS applies at the time.
Will any Malaysian city record API above 300 from 11 to 30 September 2026?
About Market
Summary: This market centers on whether any monitoring location in Malaysia will register an Air Pollutant Index reading above 300 across the closing weeks of September 2026, the level at which national haze management procedures allow a state of emergency to be proposed for the affected area. Late September sits at the tail of the Southwest Monsoon, the dry window in which transboundary smoke from regional land and forest fires has historically driven readings across Sarawak, Sabah and the Klang Valley through the unhealthy and very unhealthy bands, making the end of the month a natural checkpoint for the severity of a haze season. Traders are assessing the likelihood that the current episode reintensifies far enough to breach the threshold that triggers Malaysia's most serious haze response.
1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if at least one qualifying API reading above 300 is published for any eligible station during the observation window running from 11 September 2026, 16:00 UTC through 30 September 2026, 15:59 UTC. It resolves NO if no such reading is published within that window. It resolves to Tie only under the conditions in Rule 5; in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
2. Definition of a Qualifying Reading: A qualifying reading is any hourly Air Pollutant Index (API) value published for a Department of Environment air quality monitoring station in Malaysia that is strictly greater than 300. API values are published as whole numbers, so the lowest qualifying value is 301; a reading of exactly 300 does not qualify. For the purposes of this market, "any Malaysian city" means any of the Department of Environment monitoring stations listed on the specified source, across all states and federal territories, whether the station's locality is a city, town, district or industrial area. A single hourly reading at a single station is sufficient — no sustained duration, no daily average, and no minimum number of stations is required. Readings published for stations outside Malaysia, and index values produced by any scale other than Malaysia's API, do not qualify. A declaration of emergency, school closure, or any other official response is neither required nor sufficient for resolution.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: The authoritative source for resolution is the Air Pollutant Index Management System (APIMS) operated by the Department of Environment Malaysia at https://eqms.doe.gov.my/APIMS/main, including its hourly readings and archived hourly tables. Official statements or data published directly by the Department of Environment Malaysia or the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability may corroborate a reading where the portal record is incomplete. News reports, third-party air quality apps, and readings converted from AQI, PM2.5 or PM10 figures may be used for temporary reference only and cannot override the APIMS record.
4. Resolution Timing: The specified source is monitored throughout the observation window and the market resolves YES as soon as a qualifying reading above 300 is published for any eligible station. If no qualifying reading is published, the market resolves NO no sooner than 24 hours after the observation window closes, allowing for late publication or correction of readings from the final hours of the window.
5. Handling Revisions, Data Gaps and Ties: Where APIMS revises or restates an hourly reading, the value shown on the specified source at the time of resolution governs; a reading that is published above 300 and subsequently corrected downward before resolution does not qualify. Station outages, maintenance gaps, and hours displayed without a numeric value are treated as containing no qualifying reading and do not extend the window. It resolves Tie if the portal is unavailable and no official Department of Environment record establishes the hourly readings for the window within 24 hours of the window's close, leaving the outcome genuinely undetermined; in that event all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
6. Ambiguities and Disputes: The hour to which a reading is attributed by APIMS, not the time it is retrieved or reported, determines whether it falls within the observation window. Where APIMS and any secondary source disagree, the APIMS record is definitive. Where APIMS itself displays conflicting values for the same station and hour, the value shown in the archived hourly table takes precedence over a live dashboard display. A change to Malaysia's API calculation methodology during the window does not alter the threshold; readings are taken as published under whichever methodology APIMS applies at the time.
