This market centers on which national team will be crowned champion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the outcome that concludes football's most-watched international tournament and its month-long knockout journey across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. As the sport's premier global competition, the World Cup functions as a definitive quadrennial reference point, where a single victor emerges from the final to claim the title that nations, players, and supporters spend years working toward. Traders are assessing the relative likelihood that each contending side will navigate the remaining stages, prevail in the decisive final, and lift the trophy, turning the tournament's climax into a clear, outcome-based question about which team ultimately stands above the rest.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: Resolves YES if France is officially declared champion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by winning the Final on 19 July 2026, and NO if any other team wins the Final or if France is eliminated before winning it. A Tie applies only under the cancellation conditions in Rule 5. This submarket resolves independently of the other team submarkets.
2. Definition of "Champion / Winner": The champion is the team recognized by FIFA as lifting the FIFA World Cup Trophy after winning the 2026 Final (MetLife Stadium / New York New Jersey Stadium). A result decided in regulation (90 minutes plus stoppage time), extra time, or a penalty shootout all count, as this is a knockout match; own goals count toward the opposing team's score.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the official 2026 FIFA World Cup match results as published by FIFA at https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Liquipedia, Sportmonks (https://www.sportmonks.com/), and official team social media may be used for corroboration only and cannot override the primary source. Resolution requires an eligible completed state — Finished, Finished after extra time, Finished after penalties, or Awarded.
4. Resolution Timing: The market is checked once the Final concludes and resolves no sooner than 3 hours after the official Final result is published by FIFA (not before approximately 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC, based on a 19:00 UTC kickoff). The check repeats until an eligible result appears or the timelines in Rule 5 are exhausted.
5. Handling Postponements and Cancellations: If the Final is postponed, suspended, or rescheduled, resolution waits for the completed rescheduled match within a 30-day postponement window; extra time and penalties then decide the champion. It resolves to Tie if the Final is Cancelled or Abandoned with no champion declared, or if no eligible completed state exists after the 12-hour waiting period (and within the 30-day window); in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share. Partial scores from an abandoned match are ignored unless the match is officially resumed and completed.
6. Ambiguities and Disputes: The primary source governs resolution. Where it conflicts with a corroborating source, FIFA's official declaration of the World Cup champion takes precedence as the final authority. Protests, appeals, or administrative reviews do not affect resolution unless and until FIFA officially overturns the on-field result.