This market centers on whether an earthquake of a specified magnitude threshold will occur within a defined geographic region before a fixed calendar cutoff, with the end date serving as the decisive milestone for inclusion. The cutoff date functions as a temporal boundary that separates qualifying seismic events from those occurring outside the relevant observation window, anchoring all consideration of regional seismic activity within that timeframe. Traders are assessing whether tectonic activity will produce an event meeting the magnitude criteria relative to that milestone, weighing historical seismic frequency, regional fault dynamics, and recent geological patterns to determine whether such an earthquake will occur before the cutoff.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if at least one earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater is recorded in Asia on or before 23:59 UTC April 30, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if no such qualifying earthquake is recorded by that deadline. There is no TIE outcome in this market.

2. Definition of Qualifying Earthquake: A qualifying event must meet all of the following:

   -Magnitude is 6.5 or higher as reported by the USGS.

   -The epicenter is located within the geographic region of Asia.

   -The event time is the official origin time recorded by USGS and must fall within the specified timeframe.

3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program database. Official USGS records of magnitude, location, and origin time are determinative. Secondary seismic databases may be used only for corroboration and cannot override USGS data.

4. Handling Revisions and Multiple Events: If multiple qualifying earthquakes occur, any single valid event is sufficient for a YES resolution. If USGS revises magnitude or classification after initial publication, the latest official USGS revision within a reasonable resolution window will be used.

5. Resolution Timing: The market will be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after 23:59 UTC April 30, 2026, once USGS records confirm whether any qualifying earthquake occurred within the timeframe.

6. Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting interpretations of region boundaries or data discrepancies, USGS classifications and geographic data take precedence. Any remaining ambiguity will be resolved using the most consistent and authoritative USGS dataset available.