How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 21 - May 5 in North America region?
About Market
This market centers on the total number of earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurring in the North America region between April 21 and May 5, with that full observation window serving as the reference period against which seismic activity is measured. The defined date range acts as a fixed temporal boundary that captures all qualifying seismic events within a continuous interval, making the complete count over that span the key milestone. Traders are assessing whether the number of qualifying earthquakes recorded during this period will match a specific total relative to that defined timeframe.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if exactly zero earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur in North America between April 21 and 23:59 UTC May 5, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if one or more qualifying earthquakes are recorded within that timeframe. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Qualifying Earthquake: A qualifying earthquake is any seismic event recorded with a magnitude of 5.5 or greater whose epicenter is located within the geographic boundaries of North America as classified by the resolution source.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake database. Official USGS records of event time, magnitude, and location are determinative. Secondary scientific or governmental seismic databases may be used for corroboration but cannot override USGS records.
- Resolution Timing: This market will not resolve until after 23:59 UTC May 5, 2026. If a qualifying earthquake is recorded on the final day of the observation window, resolution may be delayed for up to 24 hours to allow magnitude or classification revisions. After that period, resolution will occur using the most recent USGS data.
- Handling Revisions, Delays, and Data Updates: If the USGS later revises an earthquake’s magnitude below 5.5 or updates its location to outside North America, that event will not count. If magnitude is revised upward to 5.5 or higher within the 24-hour revision window, it will count.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting seismic records, USGS published data takes precedence. If classification uncertainties remain, determinations will be made based on the most recent official USGS dataset available after the revision window.
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 21 - May 5 in North America region?
About Market
This market centers on the total number of earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurring in the North America region between April 21 and May 5, with that full observation window serving as the reference period against which seismic activity is measured. The defined date range acts as a fixed temporal boundary that captures all qualifying seismic events within a continuous interval, making the complete count over that span the key milestone. Traders are assessing whether the number of qualifying earthquakes recorded during this period will match a specific total relative to that defined timeframe.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if exactly zero earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur in North America between April 21 and 23:59 UTC May 5, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if one or more qualifying earthquakes are recorded within that timeframe. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Qualifying Earthquake: A qualifying earthquake is any seismic event recorded with a magnitude of 5.5 or greater whose epicenter is located within the geographic boundaries of North America as classified by the resolution source.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake database. Official USGS records of event time, magnitude, and location are determinative. Secondary scientific or governmental seismic databases may be used for corroboration but cannot override USGS records.
- Resolution Timing: This market will not resolve until after 23:59 UTC May 5, 2026. If a qualifying earthquake is recorded on the final day of the observation window, resolution may be delayed for up to 24 hours to allow magnitude or classification revisions. After that period, resolution will occur using the most recent USGS data.
- Handling Revisions, Delays, and Data Updates: If the USGS later revises an earthquake’s magnitude below 5.5 or updates its location to outside North America, that event will not count. If magnitude is revised upward to 5.5 or higher within the 24-hour revision window, it will count.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting seismic records, USGS published data takes precedence. If classification uncertainties remain, determinations will be made based on the most recent official USGS dataset available after the revision window.
