How many 5.8 or above earthquakes April 28 - May 5 in Asia region?
About Market
This market centers on how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.8 or greater will be recorded within the Asia region between April 28 and the end of May 5, 2026, across a seven-day window spanning some of the world's most seismically active territories. Asia's dense network of major fault systems and subduction zones — including those underlying Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, China, and Central Asia — regularly produces significant seismic events, making weekly earthquake frequency a meaningful and trackable forecasting variable. Traders are assessing historical baseline rates of qualifying events in this region, current tectonic activity signals, and USGS monitoring data to determine the most probable count outcome across the defined observation window.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "YES" if the final confirmed count of earthquakes of magnitude 5.8 or greater in the Asia region between 00:00 UTC April 28 and 23:59 UTC May 5, 2026 is exactly zero. It resolves to "NO" if the final confirmed count is one or more. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Qualifying Earthquake: A qualifying earthquake is any seismic event recorded with a magnitude of 5.8 or greater (on any standard magnitude scale as reported by USGS) whose epicenter is located within the Asian continent, including but not limited to Japan, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, India, Central Asia, and Russia's Asian territories, as classified by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. Events whose epicenter falls outside Asia as classified by USGS do not qualify regardless of felt impact.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog. Official USGS records of event time, magnitude, and location are determinative. Secondary scientific or governmental seismic databases may be used for corroboration but cannot override USGS records.
- Resolution Timing: This market will not resolve until after 23:59 UTC May 5, 2026. Resolution may be delayed for up to 24 hours after the close of the observation window to allow for magnitude or location classification revisions to any event recorded on the final day. After that period, resolution will occur using the most recent available USGS data.
- Handling Revisions and Data Updates: If USGS revises an earthquake's magnitude below 5.8 or updates its epicenter to outside the Asia region, that event will not count. If magnitude is revised upward to 5.8 or higher within the 24-hour revision window, it will count toward the final total.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting seismic records, USGS published data takes precedence. If classification uncertainties regarding epicenter location remain after the revision window, determinations will be made based on the most recent official USGS dataset available at that time.
How many 5.8 or above earthquakes April 28 - May 5 in Asia region?
About Market
This market centers on how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.8 or greater will be recorded within the Asia region between April 28 and the end of May 5, 2026, across a seven-day window spanning some of the world's most seismically active territories. Asia's dense network of major fault systems and subduction zones — including those underlying Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, China, and Central Asia — regularly produces significant seismic events, making weekly earthquake frequency a meaningful and trackable forecasting variable. Traders are assessing historical baseline rates of qualifying events in this region, current tectonic activity signals, and USGS monitoring data to determine the most probable count outcome across the defined observation window.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "YES" if the final confirmed count of earthquakes of magnitude 5.8 or greater in the Asia region between 00:00 UTC April 28 and 23:59 UTC May 5, 2026 is exactly zero. It resolves to "NO" if the final confirmed count is one or more. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Qualifying Earthquake: A qualifying earthquake is any seismic event recorded with a magnitude of 5.8 or greater (on any standard magnitude scale as reported by USGS) whose epicenter is located within the Asian continent, including but not limited to Japan, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, India, Central Asia, and Russia's Asian territories, as classified by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. Events whose epicenter falls outside Asia as classified by USGS do not qualify regardless of felt impact.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog. Official USGS records of event time, magnitude, and location are determinative. Secondary scientific or governmental seismic databases may be used for corroboration but cannot override USGS records.
- Resolution Timing: This market will not resolve until after 23:59 UTC May 5, 2026. Resolution may be delayed for up to 24 hours after the close of the observation window to allow for magnitude or location classification revisions to any event recorded on the final day. After that period, resolution will occur using the most recent available USGS data.
- Handling Revisions and Data Updates: If USGS revises an earthquake's magnitude below 5.8 or updates its epicenter to outside the Asia region, that event will not count. If magnitude is revised upward to 5.8 or higher within the 24-hour revision window, it will count toward the final total.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting seismic records, USGS published data takes precedence. If classification uncertainties regarding epicenter location remain after the revision window, determinations will be made based on the most recent official USGS dataset available at that time.
