How many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater will occur in Asia between March 17 - March 31?
About Market
This market centers on how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater will occur in Asia before the conclusion of the specified mid-March observation window, using the end of that period as the defining milestone for measurement. The timeframe serves as a fixed interval for evaluating seismic activity across a region known for frequent tectonic movement, allowing earthquake counts to be assessed within a clearly bounded segment of geophysical monitoring. Traders are assessing the cumulative number of qualifying seismic events recorded before that milestone.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if zero earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur in Asia between March 17 and 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026. It resolves to “No” if one or more qualifying earthquakes are recorded within that timeframe.
- Definition of Qualifying Earthquake: A qualifying earthquake is any seismic event recorded with a magnitude of 5.5 or greater whose epicenter is located within the geographic boundaries of Asia as classified by the resolution source.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake database. Official USGS records of event time, magnitude, and location are determinative. Secondary scientific or governmental seismic databases may be used for corroboration but cannot override USGS records.
- Resolution Timing: This market will not resolve until after 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026. If a qualifying earthquake is recorded on the final day of the observation window, resolution may be delayed for up to 24 hours to allow magnitude or classification revisions. After that period, resolution will occur using the most recent USGS data.
- Handling Revisions, Delays, and Data Updates: If the USGS later revises an earthquake’s magnitude below 5.5 or updates its location to outside Asia, that event will not count. If magnitude is revised upward to 5.5 or higher within the 24-hour revision window, it will count.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting seismic records, USGS published data takes precedence. If classification uncertainties remain, determinations will be made based on the most recent official USGS dataset available after the revision window.
How many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater will occur in Asia between March 17 - March 31?
About Market
This market centers on how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater will occur in Asia before the conclusion of the specified mid-March observation window, using the end of that period as the defining milestone for measurement. The timeframe serves as a fixed interval for evaluating seismic activity across a region known for frequent tectonic movement, allowing earthquake counts to be assessed within a clearly bounded segment of geophysical monitoring. Traders are assessing the cumulative number of qualifying seismic events recorded before that milestone.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if zero earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur in Asia between March 17 and 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026. It resolves to “No” if one or more qualifying earthquakes are recorded within that timeframe.
- Definition of Qualifying Earthquake: A qualifying earthquake is any seismic event recorded with a magnitude of 5.5 or greater whose epicenter is located within the geographic boundaries of Asia as classified by the resolution source.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake database. Official USGS records of event time, magnitude, and location are determinative. Secondary scientific or governmental seismic databases may be used for corroboration but cannot override USGS records.
- Resolution Timing: This market will not resolve until after 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026. If a qualifying earthquake is recorded on the final day of the observation window, resolution may be delayed for up to 24 hours to allow magnitude or classification revisions. After that period, resolution will occur using the most recent USGS data.
- Handling Revisions, Delays, and Data Updates: If the USGS later revises an earthquake’s magnitude below 5.5 or updates its location to outside Asia, that event will not count. If magnitude is revised upward to 5.5 or higher within the 24-hour revision window, it will count.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting seismic records, USGS published data takes precedence. If classification uncertainties remain, determinations will be made based on the most recent official USGS dataset available after the revision window.
