How many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater will occur in North America between April 3 to April 16?
About Market
This market centers on how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater will occur in North America between April 3 and April 16, using the close of this observation window as the reference point for evaluating seismic activity across the region. The end of the timeframe serves as a clear milestone because it establishes the complete set of qualifying events that can be counted toward the final total. Traders are assessing how frequently qualifying earthquakes will occur before this cutoff, using historical seismic trends and real-time monitoring data to determine which outcome range the total number of events will fall into.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if exactly two earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur in North America between April 3 and 23:59 UTC April 16, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if fewer than two or more than two qualifying earthquakes are recorded within that timeframe. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Qualifying Earthquake: A qualifying earthquake is any seismic event recorded with a magnitude of 5.5 or greater whose epicenter is located within the geographic boundaries of North America as classified by the resolution source.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake database. Official USGS records of event time, magnitude, and location are determinative. Secondary scientific or governmental seismic databases may be used for corroboration but cannot override USGS records.
- Resolution Timing: This market will not resolve until after 23:59 UTC April 16, 2026. If a qualifying earthquake is recorded on the final day of the observation window, resolution may be delayed for up to 24 hours to allow magnitude or classification revisions. After that period, resolution will occur using the most recent USGS data.
- Handling Revisions, Delays, and Data Updates: If the USGS later revises an earthquake’s magnitude below 5.5 or updates its location to outside North America, that event will not count. If magnitude is revised upward to 5.5 or higher within the 24-hour revision window, it will count.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting seismic records, USGS published data takes precedence. If classification uncertainties remain, determinations will be made based on the most recent official USGS dataset available after the revision window.
How many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater will occur in North America between April 3 to April 16?
About Market
This market centers on how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater will occur in North America between April 3 and April 16, using the close of this observation window as the reference point for evaluating seismic activity across the region. The end of the timeframe serves as a clear milestone because it establishes the complete set of qualifying events that can be counted toward the final total. Traders are assessing how frequently qualifying earthquakes will occur before this cutoff, using historical seismic trends and real-time monitoring data to determine which outcome range the total number of events will fall into.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if exactly two earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur in North America between April 3 and 23:59 UTC April 16, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if fewer than two or more than two qualifying earthquakes are recorded within that timeframe. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Qualifying Earthquake: A qualifying earthquake is any seismic event recorded with a magnitude of 5.5 or greater whose epicenter is located within the geographic boundaries of North America as classified by the resolution source.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake database. Official USGS records of event time, magnitude, and location are determinative. Secondary scientific or governmental seismic databases may be used for corroboration but cannot override USGS records.
- Resolution Timing: This market will not resolve until after 23:59 UTC April 16, 2026. If a qualifying earthquake is recorded on the final day of the observation window, resolution may be delayed for up to 24 hours to allow magnitude or classification revisions. After that period, resolution will occur using the most recent USGS data.
- Handling Revisions, Delays, and Data Updates: If the USGS later revises an earthquake’s magnitude below 5.5 or updates its location to outside North America, that event will not count. If magnitude is revised upward to 5.5 or higher within the 24-hour revision window, it will count.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting seismic records, USGS published data takes precedence. If classification uncertainties remain, determinations will be made based on the most recent official USGS dataset available after the revision window.
