This market tracks whether Israel will fully withdraw all ground forces from the Gaza Strip and cease continuous ground operations during 2025. Partial pullbacks into buffer zones or limited presence in designated corridors may qualify under strict criteria. The market resolves based on official Israeli, U.N., or credible media confirmation of the withdrawal conditions.

1. Definition of Withdrawal: The market resolves to “Yes” if, at any time before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025, Israel completes a withdrawal of all ground forces from the Gaza Strip and halts continuous ground operations, in a manner consistent with the October 2025 ceasefire framework, even if it continues limited or time-bound cross‑border raids or drone surveillance.

2. Buffer Zone Exception: Withdrawals into, or deployment immediately behind, formally designated buffer zones of up to approximately 1 km inside Gaza’s northern and eastern border areas count as withdrawal, provided such positions are identified by U.N. or U.S. monitoring missions as legitimate buffer deployments.

   Presence in the Philadelphi Corridor is allowed only up to but not beyond coordinates (31.248486, 34.257643) marking the Rafah crossing. Anything south or west of this point toward Rafah’s civilian zone voids qualification.

3. Disqualifying Maintained Presence: Any continuing Israeli control or garrison in:

   • urban areas of Gaza (e.g., Gaza City, Khan Younis, Rafah urban zone),

   • internal corridors bisecting the territory (e.g., the Netzarim or Morag corridor areas), or

   • positions beyond the permitted Philadelphi limit
     automatically disqualifies the market from resolving to “Yes.”

4. Official and Verifiable Confirmation: A valid withdrawal must be explicitly confirmed by one or more of the following, on official record:

   • The Government of Israel or IDF spokesperson

   • The U.N., U.N. observers, or official U.N. verification reports

   • The Government of the United States, the State Department, or official ceasefire monitoring task force
     Secondary confirmations by Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Al Jazeera, and AFP may support verification only if two or more such outlets independently corroborate official statements.

5. Resolution Timing: The market is monitored continuously through 2025. Once confirmed at any point, it resolves immediately to YES or NO.

6. Final No if Not Withdrawn: If by December 31, 2025 no valid confirmation of full withdrawal is found, the market resolves to NO.

7. Primary Source Priority: Israeli government, Israeli military/IDF statements, U.N. or U.N. monitoring reports carry highest weight.

8. Secondary Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, major global media, regional credible news outlets serve as verification.

9. Ambiguities & Disputes: In cases of ambiguous claims (e.g. “withdraw to buffer zone”), the organizer adjudicates based on mapping, coordinates, official maps, buffer zone definitions, and cross-verified evidence.

10. Edge Cases: Temporary incursions, raids, or limited presence consistent with buffer rules do not automatically invalidate a prior confirmed withdrawal. But reoccupation beyond buffer boundaries after confirmation may prompt re-evaluation if evidence is strong.