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NCAA March Madness Winner

About Market

Market Summary

This market centers on which specified team will win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament before the competition reaches its final conclusion, framing each outcome as an order-based comparison between a team’s championship victory and the tournament’s completion. The tournament serves as the defining milestone, representing the culmination of a structured elimination bracket that determines a single national champion. Traders are assessing which team, if any, will secure the title before the tournament concludes, using team performance, progression through rounds, and elimination outcomes to evaluate which result ultimately precedes the final championship decision.

Rules
  1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if Arizona is officially recorded as the winner of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. It resolves to “NO” if Arizona is eliminated at any stage of the tournament or otherwise cannot win under official NCAA rules. It resolves to “Tie” if no official tournament winner is declared by 23:59 UTC April 8, 2026.
  2. Definition of Tournament Winner: “Winner” means the team officially recognized as the national champion in the final game of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, including outcomes determined in regulation time, overtime, or any officially sanctioned scoring determination.
  3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source for resolution is official NCAA publications and results (e.g., https://www.ncaa.com). Secondary sources such as ESPN or other major sports data providers may be used for confirmation but cannot override official NCAA records.
  4. Elimination Handling: If Arizona is eliminated from the tournament at any stage, this market resolves immediately to “NO,” as it becomes impossible for the team to win the championship.
  5. Resolution Timing: The market will resolve as soon as Arizona either wins the tournament or is eliminated. If no official winner is declared by 23:59 UTC April 8, 2026, the market resolves to “Tie.”
  6. Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting or unclear information, the most recent official NCAA publication takes precedence. Any remaining ambiguity will be resolved based on official NCAA records and a reasonable interpretation of these rules.