This market centers on the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 knockout fixture between Paraguay and France at Philadelphia Stadium, with attention focused on whether the combined goal total finishes above or below the three-goal line across the full course of play, including any extra time required to separate the sides. The tie is a notable focal point because it is a single-elimination contest that must produce a winner to advance, matching a resilient Paraguayan side that ground past Germany on penalties and defends its box in numbers against a French team stacked with elite attacking talent and accustomed to deep tournament runs. Traders are assessing the likelihood of a high-scoring or low-scoring contest, weighing France's firepower against Paraguay's containment and the cagey rhythms of knockout football.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves YES (Over) if the combined goal total of Paraguay and France in counted match time is 4 or more. It resolves NO (Under) if the combined total is 2 or fewer. It resolves to Tie if the combined total is exactly 3; in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share. Because this is a knockout fixture, counted match time includes any extra time played, but goals scored in a penalty shootout are excluded. A Tie also applies under the postponement and cancellation conditions in Rule 5.

2. Definition of "Total Goals Scored": The total is the sum of goals officially credited to Paraguay and to France at the conclusion of counted match time, defined as the 90 minutes of normal play plus referee-added stoppage time, plus — if the tie is level after 90 minutes — the two 15-minute periods of extra time and their stoppage time. Own goals count toward the total and are credited to the benefiting team. Penalty kicks converted during normal or extra time count as goals; goals scored in a penalty shootout do NOT count toward the total. The market resolves on the combined total at the referee's final whistle of the last period played.

3. Official Sources and Evidence: Primary source: the Sportmonks API (https://www.sportmonks.com/) for the full-time result, extra-time result, and goalscorer data. Secondary sources for corroboration only: the official 2026 FIFA World Cup match record published by FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup), ESPN, and FlashScore. The Sportmonks record is the definitive record in the event of any discrepancy.

4. Resolution Timing: The market resolves no sooner than 1 hour after the official final result — inclusive of any extra time — is posted on the Sportmonks API. Trading may already be closed or paused under Rule 7; all open positions are locked through to resolution.

5. Handling Postponements and Cancellations: If the match is postponed, suspended, cancelled, or abandoned before an official final result is reached, the market remains open during a 24-hour waiting period to allow the fixture to be completed. If no eligible completed final result exists more than 24 hours past the scheduled kickoff, the market resolves to Tie, and all positions settle at $0.50 per share. Partial scores from an abandoned match are ignored unless the fixture is officially resumed and completed within the waiting window, in which case the final counted-time result is used.

6. Ambiguities and Disputes: In the event of conflicting scoreline or goalscorer reports between sources, the Sportmonks record takes precedence, including its attribution of goals and own goals. If the primary Sportmonks source is unavailable at resolution time, a consensus of at least two secondary sources is used. VAR-confirmed goals follow the official match record. Any result under active official protest or review remains unresolved until FIFA issues a final ruling.

7. Trading Window and Pause: Trading remains open throughout the match, from kickoff until the referee signals the end of counted play (full-time, or the end of extra time if played). The YES (Over) outcome may be locked the moment the combined total reaches 4, because the total cannot decrease; the NO (Under) and Tie outcomes cannot be locked before the end of counted play, since further goals can move the total past their thresholds in any remaining time, including extra time. At the end of counted play the total is fixed and all open positions are locked through to resolution. If the tie proceeds to a penalty shootout, the shootout does not affect this market and trading remains locked pending resolution.