US strikes Iran by 13 February?
About Market
This market examines whether the United States will carry out a military strike against Iran by February 13, amid sharply escalating tensions in the Middle East. Increased U.S. naval deployments, heightened rhetoric from Iranian and Western officials, and growing concern over regional escalation have fueled speculation about potential limited or targeted action. Traders are weighing diplomatic signals, military posture, and unfolding events to assess whether the standoff crosses the threshold into direct U.S. military strikes within the specified timeframe.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if the United States conducts at least one kinetic military strike against targets located within Iran on or before 10:30 PM UTC on 13 February 2026. The market resolves to NO if no such strike occurs by that time. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of “US Military Strike”: For this market, a strike means a deliberate kinetic attack carried out by U.S. armed forces, including airstrikes, missile strikes, drone strikes, or naval-launched weapons against Iranian territory. Cyber operations, sanctions, troop movements, exercises, warnings, or strikes carried out solely by non-U.S. forces do not qualify.
- Attribution and Responsibility: A strike qualifies if it is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or credibly reported as a U.S.-conducted action, including operations conducted unilaterally or as part of a coalition where U.S. forces directly execute the strike. Actions conducted exclusively by allies, proxies, or covert actors without credible attribution to U.S. forces do not count.
- Official Sources and Evidence: Primary sources include official statements or releases from the U.S. government or Department of Defense. Secondary sources such as major international news organizations may be used to corroborate events when official confirmation is delayed, but cannot override clear and later-dated U.S. government acknowledgements.
- Resolution Timing: The market will be reviewed continuously and may resolve immediately once a qualifying strike is confirmed by reliable sources. If no qualifying strike is confirmed, the market resolves to NO shortly after 10:30 PM UTC on 13 February 2026.
- Handling Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting reports, priority is given to official U.S. government statements, followed by consensus reporting from multiple reputable international news outlets. If later authoritative information clarifies whether a strike did or did not occur before the deadline, the resolution will follow the facts as they occurred prior to the cutoff time.
US strikes Iran by 13 February?
About Market
This market examines whether the United States will carry out a military strike against Iran by February 13, amid sharply escalating tensions in the Middle East. Increased U.S. naval deployments, heightened rhetoric from Iranian and Western officials, and growing concern over regional escalation have fueled speculation about potential limited or targeted action. Traders are weighing diplomatic signals, military posture, and unfolding events to assess whether the standoff crosses the threshold into direct U.S. military strikes within the specified timeframe.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if the United States conducts at least one kinetic military strike against targets located within Iran on or before 10:30 PM UTC on 13 February 2026. The market resolves to NO if no such strike occurs by that time. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of “US Military Strike”: For this market, a strike means a deliberate kinetic attack carried out by U.S. armed forces, including airstrikes, missile strikes, drone strikes, or naval-launched weapons against Iranian territory. Cyber operations, sanctions, troop movements, exercises, warnings, or strikes carried out solely by non-U.S. forces do not qualify.
- Attribution and Responsibility: A strike qualifies if it is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or credibly reported as a U.S.-conducted action, including operations conducted unilaterally or as part of a coalition where U.S. forces directly execute the strike. Actions conducted exclusively by allies, proxies, or covert actors without credible attribution to U.S. forces do not count.
- Official Sources and Evidence: Primary sources include official statements or releases from the U.S. government or Department of Defense. Secondary sources such as major international news organizations may be used to corroborate events when official confirmation is delayed, but cannot override clear and later-dated U.S. government acknowledgements.
- Resolution Timing: The market will be reviewed continuously and may resolve immediately once a qualifying strike is confirmed by reliable sources. If no qualifying strike is confirmed, the market resolves to NO shortly after 10:30 PM UTC on 13 February 2026.
- Handling Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting reports, priority is given to official U.S. government statements, followed by consensus reporting from multiple reputable international news outlets. If later authoritative information clarifies whether a strike did or did not occur before the deadline, the resolution will follow the facts as they occurred prior to the cutoff time.
