This multi-outcome market explores who, if anyone, will emerge as Venezuela’s new leader by the end of 2026, reflecting deep uncertainty around the country’s political future. Amid economic crisis, international pressure, contested legitimacy, and ongoing power struggles within both the ruling establishment and the opposition, several figures have been discussed as potential successors. Traders are assessing the likelihood of a leadership transition and which political pathway—regime continuity, negotiated change, or opposition breakthrough—could ultimately determine who leads Venezuela by the end of 2026.

1. Market Outcomes and Multi-Market Relationship: This submarket resolves to Yes if, at the end of 31 December 2026 (using the platform’s date and time convention), Delcy Rodríguez is Venezuela’s leader as defined in Rule 2. It resolves to No if she is not Venezuela’s leader at that time or if the position is vacant or held by someone else. There is no TIE outcome in this submarket; additionally, in this multi-outcome group, if this submarket resolves Yes, then all other submarkets in the “Venezuela’s New Leader by End of 2026?” group must resolve No, and if none of the candidates’ conditions are met, all submarkets in the group resolve No.
2. Definition of “Venezuela’s leader at end of 2026”: For this market, “Venezuela’s leader” means the individual who, as of the end of 31 December 2026, holds the office that is generally understood and widely reported as the country’s highest national executive authority (typically President of the Republic or an explicitly designated interim/acting president or equivalent head of state/government). Delcy Rodríguez must personally hold that office at that time; being designated as “president-elect”, a leading candidate, de facto faction leader, or holding any other senior role short of that top national executive office does not satisfy this condition.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: Primary sources, in order of priority, are (a) official publications and announcements of Venezuelan constitutional bodies (e.g., presidency, electoral authority, supreme court, official gazette) and (b) formal acts or communiqués from recognized Venezuelan state institutions explicitly identifying the holder of the top national executive office. Secondary sources include major international news agencies and reputable global news outlets summarizing or citing these primary sources; they may be used to clarify timing and interpretation, but cannot override clear, later-dated primary-source statements.
4. Resolution Timing: The submarket is assessed based on the situation as of the end of 31 December 2026, not on later changes. It should be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after that date, once sufficient reliable information from the sources in Rule 3 is available. If credible information emerges shortly afterward clarifying who held the top national executive office at the deadline, the resolver may use that information to align the outcome with the facts as of the deadline.
5. Handling Competing Claims, Interim Governments, and Vacancies: If multiple individuals claim leadership, the resolver will identify as “Venezuela’s leader” the person whom the best combination of primary and secondary sources in Rule 3 indicates is exercising the de facto highest national executive authority (for example, controlling core state institutions and being treated as head of state/government in official and diplomatic practice) as of the deadline. If the office is clearly vacant at the deadline (e.g., no one is serving or recognized in the top national executive role), this submarket resolves to No. If Delcy Rodríguez is only announced to assume leadership in the future but has not yet taken office by the deadline, the submarket resolves No.
6. Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting or ambiguous evidence, clear and later-dated official Venezuelan institutional statements take precedence, followed by the consensus of major international news agencies and reputable global outlets. In any remaining ambiguous case not explicitly covered above, the resolver will apply these rules to determine whether, as of the end of 31 December 2026, a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude that Delcy Rodríguez was Venezuela’s top national executive leader, while respecting the constraint in Rule 1 that at most one submarket in the group may resolve Yes.