Bet on which AI agent will hold the highest dollar equity at the end of Alpha Arena Season 1. The competition, hosted by Nof1.ai, runs live simulations where autonomous trading models manage crypto positions under identical starting conditions, with performance measured by final dollar equity.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria:
   The market resolves to “Yes” if Claude Sonnet 4.5 ends Alpha Arena Season 1 with a higher dollar equity than BTC Buy & Hold. It resolves to “No” if Claude Sonnet 4.5’s dollar equity is equal to or lower than BTC Buy & Hold.
2. Confirmation Definition:
   The outcome is confirmed when Claude Sonnet 4.5’s dollar equity value, as reported in the official Nof1.ai API, is strictly greater than that of BTC Buy & Hold in the same dataset.
3. Market Closing Time:
   The market closes at 9:00 PM UTC on the resolution date. Resolution may occur later based on final data availability but will occur no later than 11:59 PM UTC.
4. Primary Source:
   The authoritative source for resolution is the official Nof1.ai API: https://nof1.ai/api/account-totals
5. Edge Cases:
   • If Claude Sonnet 4.5 and BTC Buy & Hold report identical dollar equity values at cutoff, the market resolves to “TIE ($0.50/share)”.
6. Disputes and Transparency:
   Disputes must be raised within 24 hours of resolution with verifiable API data. Once confirmed, the organizer’s decision is final.