This market predicts which company will lead electric vehicle (EV) sales in China by the end of 2025. Outcomes are based on official sales data, primarily from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), with secondary verification from CnEVPost, MarkLines, and other reputable sources. The company with the highest total EV sales (units sold) by December 31, 2025, will resolve to “Yes,” and all other options will resolve to “No.”

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if Geely has the highest total EV sales in China for 2025, as reported in official sources. This market will resolve to “No” if Geely does not have the highest EV sales.
2. Measurement Basis: The metric is total EV units sold in China in 2025, including BEVs and PHEVs, based on official CPCA reports.
3. Eligible Resolution Timing: Resolution occurs when the first official CPCA full-year 2025 EV sales report is published, expected in early January 2026. If no official report is available by January 31, 2026, the next closest official report will be used to determine the highest-selling company.
4. Data Sources: Primary source is CPCA (www.cpcaauto.com). Secondary sources: CnEVPost (https://cnevpost.com) and MarkLines (https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-china-by-month). Additional sources like Reuters and Bloomberg may be used for verification only.
5. Resolution in Edge Cases: If Geely ties for highest EV sales, CPCA rankings take precedence. First published figures determine resolution even if later revised.
6. Discrepancies: CPCA is authoritative; secondary sources used only if CPCA data is missing.
7. General Provisions: Only EV sales in mainland China are considered. Rules are locked once created.