This market explores the possibility that the 2026 FIFA World Cup could be cancelled entirely in response to escalating global instability, including heightened geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Venezuela. While World Cup cancellations are extremely rare in modern history, the question reflects concerns over whether a major international crisis, security breakdown, or systemic disruption could rise to a level that makes staging the tournament unviable. Traders are weighing the resilience of FIFA’s event planning against the risk of extraordinary global events that could force an unprecedented cancellation.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to Yes if, on or before the end of 10 June 2026 (using the platform’s date and time convention), FIFA or the relevant organizing authority has officially cancelled the 2026 FIFA World Cup such that no World Cup tournament for the 2026 cycle will take place. The market resolves to No if, by the end of 10 June 2026, the 2026 World Cup has not been officially cancelled, including if it is still scheduled, underway, completed, or officially postponed/rescheduled rather than cancelled. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to Yes or No.
2. Definition of “Cancelled”: For the purposes of this market, “cancelled” means an official decision that the 2026 World Cup tournament is not going to be held at all, with no replacement tournament for that World Cup cycle announced or maintained under the 2026 designation. Changes of host countries, reduction in the number of teams, compressed formats, or significant restructuring do not count as cancellation as long as a FIFA World Cup tournament for the 2026 cycle is still intended to be played.
3. Postponements, Relocations, and Format Changes: If the 2026 World Cup is postponed to a later date or year but remains officially on the calendar as a World Cup for the 2026 cycle (even if re-dated), the market resolves to No. If it is moved to different host country(ies), held behind closed doors, or played with a modified schedule, but FIFA still regards it as the 2026 World Cup, the market also resolves to No.
4. Official Sources and Evidence: Primary sources, in order of priority, are (a) official FIFA communications (including statutes, competition regulations, circulars, and press releases) explicitly addressing the status of the 2026 World Cup, and (b) official communications from confederations and national associations where they reproduce or acknowledge FIFA decisions about the tournament’s existence. Secondary sources include reputable global sports news outlets and major international news agencies summarizing or citing these decisions; they may clarify timing and interpretation but do not override clear, later-dated primary statements.
5. Resolution Timing and Early Resolution: The market will normally be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after 10 June 2026, once adequate information from the sources in Rule 4 is available. However, if before that date FIFA issues a clear, official decision that the 2026 World Cup is cancelled as defined in Rule 2, the market may be resolved to Yes as soon as that decision is confirmed; if the tournament has clearly started before 10 June 2026 without such a cancellation, the market may be resolved to No early.
6. Handling Conflicts and Ambiguities: If there is conflicting reporting about the status of the 2026 World Cup, clear and later-dated FIFA statements take precedence, then other primary-source documents, and only then the consensus of secondary sources. In any remaining ambiguous case, the resolver will apply these rules to determine whether, as of the end of 10 June 2026, a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude that the 2026 FIFA World Cup had been officially cancelled rather than postponed, relocated, or restructured.