This market examines whether the United States will remain a host nation for the 2026 FIFA World Cup following an alleged U.S. attack on Venezuela and the resulting geopolitical fallout. The question reflects uncertainty over whether escalating international tensions, diplomatic backlash, or security concerns could prompt FIFA to reconsider the tournament’s hosting arrangements. Traders are assessing how resilient FIFA’s hosting decisions are to major foreign policy events, as well as the likelihood of any formal moves to strip or alter the USA’s hosting role ahead of the 2026 World Cup.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to Yes if, at the end of 10 June 2026 (using the date and time convention applied by the platform for this market), the United States is still officially designated by FIFA as one of the host nations/host associations of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The market resolves to No if, on or before the end of 10 June 2026, FIFA has officially removed the United States as a World Cup 2026 host (so that the USA is no longer a listed host nation) or has cancelled the 2026 World Cup without any officially designated replacement tournament including the USA as host. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to Yes or No.
2. Definition of “Hosted by USA”: For the purposes of this market, “hosted by USA” means that FIFA (or the relevant FIFA organizing body) continues to list the United States (or its recognized football association) as a host country or co-host of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in its official documentation, announcements, or tournament information by the deadline in Rule 1. The USA is considered to still be hosting even if the number of matches, venues, or cities in the USA is reduced, or if some matches are moved abroad, as long as at least one World Cup 2026 match is still scheduled to be played in the USA or the USA is otherwise explicitly retained as a host nation.
3. Exclusions and Partial-Change Scenarios: The market does not resolve to No solely because of (a) security concerns, diplomatic protests, or threats of boycotts, (b) speculative media reports about possible host changes, or (c) internal changes such as stadium or city substitutions within the USA. If FIFA moves some or even all matches that were originally planned for the USA but still officially designates the USA as a host nation (for example as part of a tri-host arrangement or similar), the market resolves to Yes.
4. Official Sources and Evidence: Primary sources, in order of priority, are (a) official FIFA publications, competition regulations, host agreements, and press releases regarding the 2026 World Cup, and (b) official communications from the United States Soccer Federation or equivalent recognized host bodies where they clearly reflect FIFA’s hosting designation. Secondary sources include reputable global sports news outlets and major international news agencies summarizing or citing these primary sources; they may be used to clarify timing and interpretation but do not override clear, later-dated primary documents.
5. Resolution Timing and Early Resolution: The market will normally be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after 10 June 2026, once sufficient reliable information is available to determine whether the USA is still an official host at that time. However, if before 10 June 2026 FIFA issues a clear, official decision definitively removing the USA as a host nation for the 2026 World Cup (with updated hosting arrangements that exclude the USA), the market may be resolved to No as soon as that decision is confirmed from the sources in Rule 4.
6. Handling Cancellations, Postponements, and Ambiguities: If the 2026 World Cup is postponed or restructured but, as of the end of 10 June 2026, the USA remains officially designated as a host for the rescheduled competition, the market resolves to Yes; if it is cancelled with no replacement tournament including the USA as host, the market resolves to No. In cases of conflicting or ambiguous evidence, clear and later-dated FIFA statements take precedence, followed by other primary-source host documentation, and then by the consensus of secondary sources; remaining disputes are resolved in line with how a well-informed neutral observer would classify whether the USA was, as of the deadline, still officially a host nation for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.