This market centers on the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 knockout fixture between Argentina and Cape Verde, with attention focused on whether Argentina can defeat Cape Verde by a margin of three or more goals across the full course of play, including any extra time required to separate the sides. The tie is a notable focal point because it is a single-elimination contest that must produce a winner to advance, pitting a star-laden, heavily favoured Argentine side against a spirited Cape Verde team making a landmark run and looking to defend resolutely against far stronger opposition. Traders are assessing the likelihood that Argentina not only wins but does so by a clear three-goal cushion or greater, weighing Argentina's attacking quality and control against Cape Verde's defensive organisation and the tighter, often cagey scoring patterns of World Cup knockout football.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves YES if Argentina's goal tally exceeds Cape Verde's by three or more goals in counted match time — that is, Argentina's goals minus Cape Verde's goals is greater than or equal to 3. It resolves NO in every other case, including Argentina winning by one or two goals, the teams being level in counted time, or Cape Verde winning. Because this is a knockout fixture, counted match time includes any extra time played, but goals scored in a penalty shootout are excluded. There is no Tie outcome for the result itself; a Tie applies only under the postponement and cancellation conditions in Rule 5.

2. Definition of "Win by 3 or More Goals": The winning margin is Argentina's goal tally minus Cape Verde's goal tally at the conclusion of counted match time, defined as the 90 minutes of normal play plus referee-added stoppage time, plus — if the tie is level after 90 minutes — the two 15-minute periods of extra time and their stoppage time. The market resolves YES only if that margin is 3 or greater at the referee's final whistle of the last period played. Goals scored in a penalty shootout do NOT count: if the tie is level after extra time and decided by a shootout, the counted-time margin is 0 and the market resolves NO, even if Argentina advances to the next round via the shootout. An own goal counts toward the team it is officially awarded to (the beneficiary team).

3. Official Sources and Evidence: Primary source: the Sportmonks API (https://www.sportmonks.com/) for the full-time result, extra-time result, and goalscorer data. Secondary sources for corroboration only: the official 2026 FIFA World Cup match record published by FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup), ESPN, and FlashScore. The Sportmonks record is the definitive record in the event of any discrepancy.

4. Resolution Timing: The market resolves no sooner than 1 hour after the official final result — inclusive of any extra time — is posted on the Sportmonks API. Trading may already be closed or paused under Rule 7; all open positions are locked through to resolution.

5. Handling Postponements and Cancellations: If the match is postponed, suspended, cancelled, or abandoned before an official final result is reached, the market remains open during a 24-hour waiting period to allow the fixture to be completed. If no eligible completed final result exists more than 24 hours past the scheduled kickoff, the market resolves to Tie, and all positions settle at $0.50 per share. Partial scores from an abandoned match are ignored unless the fixture is officially resumed and completed within the waiting window, in which case the final counted-time result is used.

6. Ambiguities and Disputes: In the event of conflicting scoreline reports between sources, the Sportmonks record takes precedence. If the primary Sportmonks source is unavailable at resolution time, a consensus of at least two secondary sources is used. VAR-confirmed goals follow the official match record. Any result under active official protest or review remains unresolved until FIFA issues a final ruling.

7. Trading Window and Pause: Trading remains open throughout the match, from kickoff until the referee signals the end of counted play (full-time, or the end of extra time if played). Neither outcome can be locked before the end of counted play, because the goal margin remains live until the final whistle and a level 90 minutes may be followed by extra time in which the margin can still change. At the end of counted play the result is fixed and all open positions are locked through to resolution. If the tie proceeds to a penalty shootout, the shootout does not affect this market and trading remains locked pending resolution.