Will Bangkok record a temperature of ≥42°C in April 2026?
About Market
This market centers on whether Bangkok will experience a daily temperature reading at or above a specified threshold before the end of April 2026, with the month’s conclusion serving as the defining milestone. The end of April functions as a temporal boundary that distinguishes qualifying temperature observations within the peak hot-season period from those occurring outside the relevant window, anchoring all measurements within that timeframe. Traders are assessing whether extreme heat conditions will produce a temperature reading meeting or exceeding the threshold relative to that milestone, weighing seasonal climate patterns, historical temperature records, and regional weather dynamics to determine whether such a reading will occur before the cutoff.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if a temperature of 42.0°C or higher is officially recorded in Bangkok at any time between 00:00 UTC April 1, 2026 and 23:59 UTC April 30, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if no such qualifying temperature is recorded within this period. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Qualifying Temperature Record: A qualifying record is a daily maximum temperature (°C) measured and published by the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) for Bangkok. Only officially reported maximum temperatures are valid; forecasts, feels-like temperatures, or unofficial readings do not qualify.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source for resolution is the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) via https://www.tmd.go.th/en/. Official TMD publications of daily temperature data are determinative. Secondary weather data providers may be used for reference but cannot override TMD records.
- Handling Data Revisions and Station Reporting: If TMD revises a recorded temperature after initial publication, the latest official revision within a reasonable resolution window will be used. If multiple stations within Bangkok are reported, any one station recording ≥42.0°C qualifies for a YES outcome.
- Resolution Timing: The market will be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after 23:59 UTC April 30, 2026, once official TMD data confirms whether a qualifying temperature occurred during the period.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting data or interpretation, official TMD records take precedence. Any remaining ambiguity will be resolved using the most consistent and authoritative TMD dataset available.
Will Bangkok record a temperature of ≥42°C in April 2026?
About Market
This market centers on whether Bangkok will experience a daily temperature reading at or above a specified threshold before the end of April 2026, with the month’s conclusion serving as the defining milestone. The end of April functions as a temporal boundary that distinguishes qualifying temperature observations within the peak hot-season period from those occurring outside the relevant window, anchoring all measurements within that timeframe. Traders are assessing whether extreme heat conditions will produce a temperature reading meeting or exceeding the threshold relative to that milestone, weighing seasonal climate patterns, historical temperature records, and regional weather dynamics to determine whether such a reading will occur before the cutoff.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if a temperature of 42.0°C or higher is officially recorded in Bangkok at any time between 00:00 UTC April 1, 2026 and 23:59 UTC April 30, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if no such qualifying temperature is recorded within this period. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Qualifying Temperature Record: A qualifying record is a daily maximum temperature (°C) measured and published by the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) for Bangkok. Only officially reported maximum temperatures are valid; forecasts, feels-like temperatures, or unofficial readings do not qualify.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source for resolution is the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) via https://www.tmd.go.th/en/. Official TMD publications of daily temperature data are determinative. Secondary weather data providers may be used for reference but cannot override TMD records.
- Handling Data Revisions and Station Reporting: If TMD revises a recorded temperature after initial publication, the latest official revision within a reasonable resolution window will be used. If multiple stations within Bangkok are reported, any one station recording ≥42.0°C qualifies for a YES outcome.
- Resolution Timing: The market will be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after 23:59 UTC April 30, 2026, once official TMD data confirms whether a qualifying temperature occurred during the period.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting data or interpretation, official TMD records take precedence. Any remaining ambiguity will be resolved using the most consistent and authoritative TMD dataset available.
