This market tracks whether Bitcoin will reclaim the psychologically significant $100,000 level during January, reflecting ongoing volatility in the crypto market. The question comes amid shifting macroeconomic expectations, evolving regulatory signals, and renewed institutional and retail interest in digital assets. Traders are assessing whether momentum from recent price action, ETF flows, and broader risk sentiment is strong enough to push Bitcoin back into six-figure territory within the month.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to Yes if, at any moment from 1 January 2026 00:00:00 UTC through 31 January 2026 23:59:59 UTC (inclusive), the Bitcoin price on the platform’s designated reference BTC/USD spot price source is greater than or equal to 100,000.00 USD. The market resolves to No if this condition is never met during that period. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to Yes or No.
2. Definition of Price and “Reclaim $100K”: For this market, “Bitcoin” means BTC and the relevant price is the last traded price (or, if clearly specified by the platform in advance, an equivalent point-in-time price such as the mid or index price) quoted in U.S. dollars on the reference source used by the platform for this market. “Reclaim $100K” means that this reference price reaches or exceeds 100,000.00 USD even once during the period in Rule 1; it does not require that Bitcoin was previously above $100K, nor that it closes above $100K for any interval.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source is the specific BTC/USD spot price feed or index explicitly designated by the platform for this market; if multiple such feeds are listed, the one identified as primary for resolution purposes controls. Secondary sources (such as other major BTC/USD spot exchanges, widely used crypto price indices, and reputable financial/crypto news aggregators) may be used only to corroborate or sanity-check the primary source and to detect obvious data errors, but cannot override a consistent, coherent primary-feed time series.
4. Resolution Timing and Data Window: The market is evaluated on tick-level or the finest reasonably available granularity from the primary source over the entire period defined in Rule 1. The market should be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after 31 January 2026, once complete and reliable data for that period are available from the primary source. If higher-quality or corrected data for the relevant period becomes available shortly after the end date, the resolver may use that data so long as it clearly reflects what actually occurred during the period.
5. Handling Data Errors, Spikes, and Source Failures: Isolated, clearly erroneous prints (for example, obvious fat-finger trades or momentary bad ticks that are inconsistent with other major BTC/USD markets and are later corrected or cancelled) may be disregarded at the resolver’s discretion, using corroboration from secondary sources in Rule 3. If the primary source experiences an outage or incomplete data for part of the period, the resolver may interpolate using clearly consistent data from secondary BTC/USD spot sources; if no reliable reconstruction is possible and the difference would be material to a Yes/No decision, the resolver will favor the interpretation most consistent with the weight of reliable market data.
6. Ambiguities and Disputes: If there is conflicting information about whether 100,000.00 USD was reached, the resolver prioritizes (a) the finalized data from the designated primary source, and (b) the consensus of multiple independent secondary sources for that same period where the primary source is ambiguous or later corrected. In any remaining borderline or ambiguous case not explicitly covered above, the resolver applies these rules to determine whether a reasonable, well-informed observer reviewing high-quality BTC/USD market data would conclude that Bitcoin’s price on the reference source did or did not reach at least 100,000.00 USD during January 2026.