This market predicts whether the total number of domestic trips in China during the 2026 Spring Festival (Chunyun) will exceed 10 billion. Outcomes are based on official statistics published by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the People’s Republic of China. Interim or secondary projections from sources such as Statista may be used for verification. The final resolution will occur using the official figure published after the 2026 Spring Festival, with the market closing no later than February 28, 2026.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if the official number of domestic trips during the 2026 Spring Festival exceeds 10 billion. It resolves to NO if the official number is 10 billion or fewer trips.
2. Measurement Basis: Only the total domestic passenger trips during the 2026 Spring Festival period, as published by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, are valid for resolution. Secondary sources such as Statista may be referenced for verification.
3. Eligible Resolution Timing: The market may resolve early if interim official figures are released. Final resolution occurs using the first official publication of full domestic trip statistics for the 2026 Spring Festival, no later than February 28, 2026.
4. Data Sources: Primary Source (highest reliability): Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China (http://www.mct.gov.cn). Secondary Source (verification only): Statista (https://www.statista.com/chart/20601/modes-of-travel-chinese-new-year/).
5. Resolution in Edge Cases: If multiple official figures are released, the earliest official figure confirming the threshold being crossed determines resolution. Minor discrepancies between the Ministry and secondary sources are resolved in favour of the official Ministry data.
6. Discrepancies: Any conflicting reports are resolved by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism data. Secondary sources are only used for verification or clarification if primary data is delayed or ambiguous.