Will China's GDP growth for 2025 exceed 4.8%?
About Market
This market predicts whether China’s officially reported real GDP growth rate for the full year 2025 will exceed 4.8%, based on the first official full-year data release. The forecast comes amid a period of global economic uncertainty and evolving domestic recovery dynamics. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) remains the authoritative source for China’s GDP data, while international institutions such as the World Bank will be used to provide corroborating analysis and forecasts.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to “Yes” if the official real GDP growth rate for 2025, as first published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is strictly greater than 4.8%. It resolves to “No” if the official figure is 4.8% or lower. The figure must represent full-year real GDP growth for 2025 and not a quarterly estimate. If no figure is published by NBS, the World Bank’s first official 2025 full-year estimate will be used for resolution.
- Measurement Basis: The applicable metric is the annual real GDP growth rate, measured year-over-year. Only the first official full-year figure will be used for resolution. Any revisions, adjustments, or methodological updates made after the first release are not considered.
- Eligible Resolution Timing: The market will resolve once the first official full-year GDP growth rate for 2025 is released by NBS in January 2026. If NBS data is not published by January 2026, the World Bank’s published figure will be used.
- Data Sources: The primary resolution source is the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) — https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/ and https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01. The secondary high-trust source is the World Bank — https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN. Additional secondary sources include Reuters, Bloomberg, and CNBC, which may be used for verification only.
- Resolution in Edge Cases: If both NBS and World Bank figures differ slightly due to rounding, the NBS figure will take precedence. If NBS data is later revised (e.g., from 4.79% to 4.81%), the initial figure at first publication determines resolution.
- Discrepancies: In case of conflicting reports, NBS data is authoritative. All decisions are final once verification is completed.
Will China's GDP growth for 2025 exceed 4.8%?
About Market
This market predicts whether China’s officially reported real GDP growth rate for the full year 2025 will exceed 4.8%, based on the first official full-year data release. The forecast comes amid a period of global economic uncertainty and evolving domestic recovery dynamics. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) remains the authoritative source for China’s GDP data, while international institutions such as the World Bank will be used to provide corroborating analysis and forecasts.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to “Yes” if the official real GDP growth rate for 2025, as first published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is strictly greater than 4.8%. It resolves to “No” if the official figure is 4.8% or lower. The figure must represent full-year real GDP growth for 2025 and not a quarterly estimate. If no figure is published by NBS, the World Bank’s first official 2025 full-year estimate will be used for resolution.
- Measurement Basis: The applicable metric is the annual real GDP growth rate, measured year-over-year. Only the first official full-year figure will be used for resolution. Any revisions, adjustments, or methodological updates made after the first release are not considered.
- Eligible Resolution Timing: The market will resolve once the first official full-year GDP growth rate for 2025 is released by NBS in January 2026. If NBS data is not published by January 2026, the World Bank’s published figure will be used.
- Data Sources: The primary resolution source is the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) — https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/ and https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01. The secondary high-trust source is the World Bank — https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN. Additional secondary sources include Reuters, Bloomberg, and CNBC, which may be used for verification only.
- Resolution in Edge Cases: If both NBS and World Bank figures differ slightly due to rounding, the NBS figure will take precedence. If NBS data is later revised (e.g., from 4.79% to 4.81%), the initial figure at first publication determines resolution.
- Discrepancies: In case of conflicting reports, NBS data is authoritative. All decisions are final once verification is completed.
