This market centers on whether the active front-month WTI Crude Oil futures contract (CL) will hit $65 or below per barrel at any point before the end of July 14, 2026, a price level that would represent a significant upward move against the current crude oil trading environment. WTI crude is driven by a broad set of variables including OPEC+ production policy, U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory data, geopolitical risk premiums in key producing regions, and macroeconomic demand signals from major consuming economies. Traders are assessing the interplay of supply constraints, global demand trajectories, and energy market sentiment to evaluate the likelihood of CL reaching the $65 threshold within the specified window.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "YES" if the official CME settlement price of the CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract is $65 or below on any eligible trading day on or before 23:59 UTC July 14, 2026. It resolves to "NO" if no such qualifying settlement price is recorded by that deadline. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
2. Definition of Active Month and Settlement Price: The "CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract" refers to the nearest designated delivery month that is not the spot month, as defined by CME Group on each eligible trading day. The "official settlement price" refers exclusively to the daily settlement value published by CME Group for that contract; intraday prices, highs, lows, last trades, bid/ask quotes, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not qualify under any circumstances.
3. Handling Contract Roll: If the CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract rolls during the evaluation period, the next eligible contract automatically becomes the Active Month. All determinations are made using the contract that qualifies as Active Month on that specific trading day, with no averaging or carryover between contracts.
4. Official Sources and Evidence: The sole authoritative source for resolution is the official settlement price published by CME Group for the CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract. Secondary data providers may be used only for temporary reference and cannot override CME's official published data under any circumstance.
5. Eligible Trading Days: Only trading days on which CME Group publishes an official settlement price for the CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract are eligible. Weekends, exchange holidays, or any day without an official settlement publication are excluded from consideration.
6. Resolution Timing: The market will be evaluated after each eligible trading day and will resolve immediately once a qualifying settlement price at $65 or below is published. If no qualifying settlement occurs, the market resolves to "NO" as soon as reasonably practical after 23:59 UTC July 14, 2026.
7. Ambiguities and Disputes: If any ambiguity arises regarding the applicable contract, settlement value, or publication timing, CME Group's official records and definitions take precedence. In any remaining unclear case, the outcome will be determined strictly using the official settlement price of the CME Group Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract as defined in these rules.