This market centers on whether the settlement price of CME Active Month Gold (GC) futures will reach $3,980.00 USD or below before the close of the observation window ending July 22, 2026, using that price level as the defining resolution threshold. The approach to July 22 serves as a temporal milestone marking the end of the evaluation period during which daily settlement prices for the Active Month CME Gold (GC) futures contract are measured against the defined level. Traders are assessing whether macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy expectations, central bank demand, and safe-haven flows will generate sufficient downward momentum to drive the CME Active Month gold settlement price to or below $3,980.00 USD within the defined timeframe.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market applies to settlement prices published from market open through 23:59:59 UTC July 22, 2026. It resolves to YES if the official settlement price of the Active Month CME Gold (GC) futures contract is equal to or lower than $3,980.00 USD on any eligible trading day on or before that deadline. It resolves to NO if the settlement price does not reach $3,980.00 USD within this period. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
2. Definition of Gold Price and Contract: "Gold" refers to CME Gold (GC) futures quoted in USD. The relevant contract is the Active Month (front month), defined as the nearest designated delivery-cycle month that is not the spot month, as determined by CME Group. Only the contract qualifying as Active Month on the relevant trading day is used.
3. Active Month Roll Handling: If the Active Month contract rolls during the evaluation period, the next eligible contract automatically becomes the Active Month. All determinations are made using the contract that qualifies as Active Month on the specific settlement date.
4. Trigger Condition and Price Metric: A price level is considered "hit" only if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month contract is equal to or lower than $3,980.00 USD. Intraday highs, lows, last trades, bid/ask quotes, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not qualify.
5. Official Sources and Evidence: Resolution is based exclusively on official settlement prices published by CME Group. Settlement prices are considered final as first published for the relevant trading day; later corrections or revisions do not alter the outcome unless the original value is formally withdrawn before resolution.
6. Non-Trading Days and Eligible Dates: Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price are considered; weekends and holidays without settlement publication are excluded. If no qualifying settlement occurs on or before 23:59:59 UTC July 22, 2026, the market resolves to NO.
7. Resolution Timing: The market may resolve early as soon as a qualifying settlement at or below $3,980.00 USD is published. If no such settlement occurs, the market resolves as soon as reasonably practical after the final eligible settlement price prior to the deadline is available.