Will Gold (GC) hit $5,500 by 9 February?
About Market
This market centers on whether Gold (GC) will reach or exceed a price of $5,500 at any point by the end of February 9. The question reflects expectations around short-term movements in the gold market, which are influenced by factors such as inflation data, central bank policy signals, U.S. dollar strength, geopolitical risk, and broader risk sentiment across global markets. Traders are assessing whether near-term catalysts and market volatility are sufficient to drive gold prices to this threshold within the specified time window, turning macroeconomic uncertainty into a clear, time-bound outcome.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if the official settlement price of the Active Month CME Gold (GC) futures contract is $5,500 or higher on any eligible trading day on or before 00:00 UTC on February 9, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if no such settlement price meets or exceeds $5,500 by the cutoff. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to YES or NO.
- Definition of “Active Month” and Applicable Price: For this market, the “Active Month” is the nearest CME-designated delivery-cycle month (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month, as defined by CME, and which automatically rolls on the contract’s First Position Date. Only the official settlement price for the Active Month is considered; intraday prices (including highs, lows, last trades, bids, offers, or indicative prices) do not qualify.
- Eligible Trading Days: Only days on which CME Group publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month are eligible for consideration. Weekends, holidays, and days without a published settlement price are ignored.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The sole authoritative resolution source is the CME Group website https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html , specifically the daily published “Settlement” price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. No alternative price sources are applicable.
- Settlement Price Finality: The market resolves based on the settlement price as it first appears on CME Group’s settlement page for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections, revisions, or updates published thereafter.
- Resolution Timing: The market may resolve immediately once a qualifying settlement price meeting or exceeding $5,500 is published within the eligible window. If no qualifying settlement price occurs, final resolution to “NO” will occur as soon as reasonably practical after 00:00 UTC on February 8, 2026.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of ambiguity regarding contract month status, settlement publication timing, or data presentation, CME Group’s definitions, timestamps, and published records take precedence. If uncertainty remains, the resolver will apply these rules based on what a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude from CME’s official settlement data.
Will Gold (GC) hit $5,500 by 9 February?
About Market
This market centers on whether Gold (GC) will reach or exceed a price of $5,500 at any point by the end of February 9. The question reflects expectations around short-term movements in the gold market, which are influenced by factors such as inflation data, central bank policy signals, U.S. dollar strength, geopolitical risk, and broader risk sentiment across global markets. Traders are assessing whether near-term catalysts and market volatility are sufficient to drive gold prices to this threshold within the specified time window, turning macroeconomic uncertainty into a clear, time-bound outcome.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if the official settlement price of the Active Month CME Gold (GC) futures contract is $5,500 or higher on any eligible trading day on or before 00:00 UTC on February 9, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if no such settlement price meets or exceeds $5,500 by the cutoff. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to YES or NO.
- Definition of “Active Month” and Applicable Price: For this market, the “Active Month” is the nearest CME-designated delivery-cycle month (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month, as defined by CME, and which automatically rolls on the contract’s First Position Date. Only the official settlement price for the Active Month is considered; intraday prices (including highs, lows, last trades, bids, offers, or indicative prices) do not qualify.
- Eligible Trading Days: Only days on which CME Group publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month are eligible for consideration. Weekends, holidays, and days without a published settlement price are ignored.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The sole authoritative resolution source is the CME Group website https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html , specifically the daily published “Settlement” price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. No alternative price sources are applicable.
- Settlement Price Finality: The market resolves based on the settlement price as it first appears on CME Group’s settlement page for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections, revisions, or updates published thereafter.
- Resolution Timing: The market may resolve immediately once a qualifying settlement price meeting or exceeding $5,500 is published within the eligible window. If no qualifying settlement price occurs, final resolution to “NO” will occur as soon as reasonably practical after 00:00 UTC on February 8, 2026.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of ambiguity regarding contract month status, settlement publication timing, or data presentation, CME Group’s definitions, timestamps, and published records take precedence. If uncertainty remains, the resolver will apply these rules based on what a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude from CME’s official settlement data.
