Will Gold hit $4,900 by Feb 22?
About Market
Market Summary
This market centers on whether gold will reach or exceed a price of $4,900 by February 22. The question reflects expectations around short-term movements in the gold market, which are influenced by factors such as inflation data, central bank policy signals, U.S. dollar strength, geopolitical developments, and overall risk sentiment. Traders are assessing whether prevailing macroeconomic pressures or renewed safe-haven demand will be sufficient to push gold to this threshold within the specified timeframe, turning near-term price dynamics into a clear, time-bound outcome.
Rules
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market applies to settlement prices published from 00:00 UTC February 19, 2026 onward. It resolves to “YES” if the official settlement price of the Active Month CME Gold (GC) futures contract is equal to or greater than $4,900.00 USD on any eligible trading day on or before 23:59:59 UTC February 22, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if the settlement price does not reach $4,900.00 within this defined period. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Gold Price and Contract: “Gold” refers to CME Gold (GC) futures quoted in USD. The relevant contract is the Active Month (front month), defined as the nearest designated delivery-cycle month (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. Only the contract qualifying as Active Month on the relevant trading day is used.
- Active Month Roll Handling: If the Active Month contract rolls during the evaluation period beginning 00:00 UTC February 19, 2026, the next eligible contract automatically becomes the Active Month for purposes of these rules. All determinations are made using the contract that qualifies as Active Month on the specific settlement date.
- Trigger Condition and Price Metric: A price level is considered “hit” only if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month contract is equal to or greater than $4,900.00. Intraday highs, lows, last trades, bid/ask quotes, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
- Authoritative Source and Data Finality: Resolution is based exclusively on official settlement prices published by CME Group. Settlement prices are considered final as first published for the relevant trading day; later corrections or revisions do not alter the outcome unless the original value is formally withdrawn before resolution.
- Non-Trading Days and Deadline: Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price are considered; weekends and holidays without settlement publication are ignored. If no qualifying settlement occurs on or before 23:59:59 UTC February 22, 2026, the market resolves to “NO.”
- Resolution Timing: The market may resolve early as soon as a qualifying settlement at or above $4,900.00 is published. If no such settlement occurs, the market resolves as soon as reasonably practical after the final eligible settlement price prior to the deadline is available.
Will Gold hit $4,900 by Feb 22?
About Market
Market Summary
This market centers on whether gold will reach or exceed a price of $4,900 by February 22. The question reflects expectations around short-term movements in the gold market, which are influenced by factors such as inflation data, central bank policy signals, U.S. dollar strength, geopolitical developments, and overall risk sentiment. Traders are assessing whether prevailing macroeconomic pressures or renewed safe-haven demand will be sufficient to push gold to this threshold within the specified timeframe, turning near-term price dynamics into a clear, time-bound outcome.
Rules
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market applies to settlement prices published from 00:00 UTC February 19, 2026 onward. It resolves to “YES” if the official settlement price of the Active Month CME Gold (GC) futures contract is equal to or greater than $4,900.00 USD on any eligible trading day on or before 23:59:59 UTC February 22, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if the settlement price does not reach $4,900.00 within this defined period. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Gold Price and Contract: “Gold” refers to CME Gold (GC) futures quoted in USD. The relevant contract is the Active Month (front month), defined as the nearest designated delivery-cycle month (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. Only the contract qualifying as Active Month on the relevant trading day is used.
- Active Month Roll Handling: If the Active Month contract rolls during the evaluation period beginning 00:00 UTC February 19, 2026, the next eligible contract automatically becomes the Active Month for purposes of these rules. All determinations are made using the contract that qualifies as Active Month on the specific settlement date.
- Trigger Condition and Price Metric: A price level is considered “hit” only if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month contract is equal to or greater than $4,900.00. Intraday highs, lows, last trades, bid/ask quotes, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
- Authoritative Source and Data Finality: Resolution is based exclusively on official settlement prices published by CME Group. Settlement prices are considered final as first published for the relevant trading day; later corrections or revisions do not alter the outcome unless the original value is formally withdrawn before resolution.
- Non-Trading Days and Deadline: Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price are considered; weekends and holidays without settlement publication are ignored. If no qualifying settlement occurs on or before 23:59:59 UTC February 22, 2026, the market resolves to “NO.”
- Resolution Timing: The market may resolve early as soon as a qualifying settlement at or above $4,900.00 is published. If no such settlement occurs, the market resolves as soon as reasonably practical after the final eligible settlement price prior to the deadline is available.
