This market centers on whether the price of gold will reach a specified threshold before the conclusion of April 23, 2026, using that deadline as the defining reference point for the outcome. The end of April 23 serves as a temporal milestone that bounds the evaluation period, marking the latest moment at which a qualifying price movement can occur within the defined window. Traders are assessing whether gold’s market dynamics, including macroeconomic conditions and futures pricing behavior, will drive the asset to meet or exceed the stated level before that cutoff, determining whether the threshold is reached relative to that reference point.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if the official CME settlement price of the CME Group Active Month Gold (GC) futures contract is equal to or greater than $4,920.00 USD on any eligible trading day on or before 23:59 UTC April 23, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if no such qualifying settlement price is recorded by that deadline. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
2. Definition of Gold Price and Contract: The “CME Group Active Month Gold (GC) futures contract” refers to the nearest designated delivery-cycle month that is not the spot month, as defined by CME Group on each eligible trading day. The “official settlement price” refers exclusively to the daily settlement value published by CME Group; intraday highs, lows, last trades, bid/ask quotes, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not qualify.
3. Active Month Roll Handling: If the CME Group Active Month Gold (GC) futures contract rolls during the evaluation period, the next eligible contract automatically becomes the Active Month. All determinations are made using the contract that qualifies as Active Month on that specific trading day, with no averaging or carryover between contracts.
4. Official Sources and Evidence: The sole authoritative source for resolution is the official settlement price published by CME Group for the CME Group Active Month Gold (GC) futures contract. Secondary financial data providers may be used only for temporary reference and cannot override CME’s official published data.
5. Eligible Trading Days: Only trading days on which CME Group publishes an official settlement price for the CME Group Active Month Gold (GC) futures contract are eligible. Weekends, exchange holidays, or any day without an official settlement publication are excluded.
6. Resolution Timing: The market will be evaluated after each eligible trading day and will resolve immediately once a qualifying settlement price at or above $4,920.00 USD is published. If no qualifying settlement occurs, the market resolves to “NO” as soon as reasonably practical after 23:59 UTC April 23, 2026.
7. Ambiguities and Disputes: If any ambiguity arises regarding the applicable contract, settlement value, or publication timing, CME Group’s official records and definitions take precedence. In any remaining unclear case, the outcome will be determined strictly using the official settlement price of the CME Group Active Month Gold (GC) futures contract as defined in these rules.