Will Gold (GC) hit $5,150 by 15 February?
About Market
Market Summary
This market centers on whether gold will reach or exceed a price of $5,150 by February 15. The question reflects expectations around near-term movements in the gold market, which are influenced by factors such as inflation data, central bank policy signals, U.S. dollar strength, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical developments. Traders are assessing whether upcoming macroeconomic catalysts or heightened market volatility will be sufficient to push gold prices to this level within the specified time window, turning short-term price action into a clear, time-bound outcome.
Rules
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves to “YES” if the official settlement price of the Active Month CME Gold (GC) futures contract is $5,150 or higher on any eligible trading day on or before 23:59:59 UTC on February 15, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if no such settlement price meets or exceeds $5,150 by the cutoff. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to YES or NO. - Definition of “Active Month” and Applicable Price:
For this market, the “Active Month” is the nearest CME-designated delivery-cycle month (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month, as defined by CME, and which automatically rolls on the contract’s First Position Date. Only the official settlement price for the Active Month is considered; intraday prices (including highs, lows, last trades, bids, offers, or indicative prices) do not qualify. - Eligible Trading Days:
Only days on which CME Group publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month are eligible for consideration. Weekends, holidays, and days without a published settlement price are ignored. - Official Sources and Evidence:
The sole authoritative resolution source is the CME Group website, specifically the daily published “Settlement” price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. No alternative price sources are applicable. - Settlement Price Finality:
The market resolves based on the settlement price as it first appears on CME Group’s settlement page for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections, revisions, or updates published thereafter. - Resolution Timing:
The market may resolve immediately once a qualifying settlement price meeting or exceeding $5,150 is published within the eligible window. If no qualifying settlement price occurs, final resolution to “NO” will occur as soon as reasonably practical after 23:59:59 UTC on February 15, 2026. - Ambiguities and Disputes:
In cases of ambiguity regarding contract month status, settlement publication timing, or data presentation, CME Group’s definitions, timestamps, and published records take precedence. If uncertainty remains, the resolver will apply these rules based on what a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude from CME’s official settlement data.
Will Gold (GC) hit $5,150 by 15 February?
About Market
Market Summary
This market centers on whether gold will reach or exceed a price of $5,150 by February 15. The question reflects expectations around near-term movements in the gold market, which are influenced by factors such as inflation data, central bank policy signals, U.S. dollar strength, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical developments. Traders are assessing whether upcoming macroeconomic catalysts or heightened market volatility will be sufficient to push gold prices to this level within the specified time window, turning short-term price action into a clear, time-bound outcome.
Rules
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves to “YES” if the official settlement price of the Active Month CME Gold (GC) futures contract is $5,150 or higher on any eligible trading day on or before 23:59:59 UTC on February 15, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if no such settlement price meets or exceeds $5,150 by the cutoff. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to YES or NO. - Definition of “Active Month” and Applicable Price:
For this market, the “Active Month” is the nearest CME-designated delivery-cycle month (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month, as defined by CME, and which automatically rolls on the contract’s First Position Date. Only the official settlement price for the Active Month is considered; intraday prices (including highs, lows, last trades, bids, offers, or indicative prices) do not qualify. - Eligible Trading Days:
Only days on which CME Group publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month are eligible for consideration. Weekends, holidays, and days without a published settlement price are ignored. - Official Sources and Evidence:
The sole authoritative resolution source is the CME Group website, specifically the daily published “Settlement” price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. No alternative price sources are applicable. - Settlement Price Finality:
The market resolves based on the settlement price as it first appears on CME Group’s settlement page for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections, revisions, or updates published thereafter. - Resolution Timing:
The market may resolve immediately once a qualifying settlement price meeting or exceeding $5,150 is published within the eligible window. If no qualifying settlement price occurs, final resolution to “NO” will occur as soon as reasonably practical after 23:59:59 UTC on February 15, 2026. - Ambiguities and Disputes:
In cases of ambiguity regarding contract month status, settlement publication timing, or data presentation, CME Group’s definitions, timestamps, and published records take precedence. If uncertainty remains, the resolver will apply these rules based on what a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude from CME’s official settlement data.
