This market examines whether Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro will be released from custody, amid heightened international tensions and speculation about potential shifts in Venezuela’s political leadership. The question reflects uncertainty around reports of detention, external pressure, negotiations, or regime change scenarios that could alter Maduro’s status. Traders are weighing the credibility of information flows, diplomatic interventions, and internal power dynamics to assess whether circumstances could lead to Maduro regaining his freedom.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to Yes if, on or before the end of 31 December 2026 (using the platform’s date and time convention), Nicolás Maduro is generally understood and credibly reported to have been released from custody as defined in Rule 2 after previously being in custody. The market resolves to No if, by that time, he has not been in custody at all, or has been in custody but has not been released from it under Rule 2 and has not died while in custody. The market resolves to Tie if he dies while in custody without having been released under Rule 2. There is therefore a possible Tie outcome in this market, in addition to Yes and No.
2. Definition of “Custody” and “Released from Custody”: For this market, “custody” means that Maduro is detained, imprisoned, or otherwise held under physical control by a state or state-like authority (including but not limited to Venezuelan authorities or foreign authorities), such that he cannot freely leave or travel at will, as credibly described by the sources in Rule 3. “Released from custody” means that such detention ends and he is publicly and credibly reported to be free to leave the place of detention and move without continuous physical restraint or guard control; transfers between prisons, to another form of confinement, or to a situation equivalent to house arrest, strict guarded “protective custody,” or continuous monitored detention do not count as release.
3. Scope and Special Situations: If Maduro is moved from formal imprisonment to a clearly restrictive house arrest or supervised “conditional freedom” where he remains under effective state control (e.g., cannot travel or appear in public without authorization), this does not count as being released from custody. An escape, rescue, or other unauthorized departure from custody counts as “released from custody” only if reliable sources agree he is no longer in the controlling authority’s hands and is not immediately recaptured; if he is quickly re-apprehended and remains in custody overall, this does not qualify. If he dies while in custody without having been released under Rule 2, the market resolves to Tie as described in Rule 1.
4. Official Sources and Evidence: Primary evidence consists of (a) official statements or documents from the detaining authority (e.g., government, law-enforcement, corrections, military, or judicial bodies) and (b) official statements from recognized international organizations directly involved in his detention or release (if any). Secondary evidence includes major international news agencies and reputable global news organizations that report, based on named or clearly identified official or direct sources, that Maduro has been detained and/or released; these may be used to establish both the fact and timing of custody and release where primary sources are incomplete.
5. Resolution Timing and Information Cutoff: The market will normally be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after 31 December 2026, once sufficient reliable information from the sources in Rule 4 is available. If credible evidence emerges shortly after that date indicating that a qualifying release from custody or an in-custody death occurred (or did not occur) before the deadline but was not widely reported at the time, the resolver may use that evidence to align the market outcome with the best available understanding of events as of the deadline.
6. Handling Conflicts and Ambiguities: If sources conflict on whether Maduro was in custody, whether he has been released, or whether and when he died in custody, clear and later-dated official statements from the detaining authority take precedence, followed by other primary sources, and then by the consensus of major international news agencies. In any remaining ambiguous case not explicitly covered above, the resolver will apply these rules to determine whether, as of the end of 31 December 2026, a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude that Nicolás Maduro had been in custody and then had either been released from it as defined in Rule 2 (Yes), remained in custody without release and without dying (No), or died while still in custody (Tie).