Will Project Hail Mary reach $300M within 30 days of release?
About Market
This market centers on whether Project Hail Mary will reach a specified box office milestone before the conclusion of a 30-day period following its release, using that revenue threshold as the defining reference event. The 30-day window serves as a standardized performance benchmark, capturing the most commercially significant early phase of a film’s theatrical run and providing a clear timeframe for evaluating its initial reception. Traders are assessing whether cumulative audience turnout and ticket sales will drive the film’s box office total to the specified level relative to that milestone, weighing factors such as opening performance, release scale, and sustained demand to determine whether the threshold will be reached within the defined period.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if the Domestic Box Office (cumulative total) for Project Hail Mary, as displayed on The Numbers, is equal to or greater than $300,000,000 USD on or before 00:00 UTC April 18, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if the film does not reach this threshold by that deadline. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Domestic Box Office (Cumulative Total): “Domestic Box Office (cumulative total)” refers to the total domestic theatrical revenue displayed as “Domestic Box Office” on The Numbers film page. This value represents the cumulative gross to date (equivalent to total gross); weekend or periodic grosses do not qualify.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source for resolution is the film’s page on The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Project-Hail-Mary-(2026)), specifically the Domestic Box Office figure displayed on that page. Secondary sources may be used for corroboration but cannot override The Numbers’ displayed data.
- Eligible Measurement and Timing: Only Domestic Box Office values visible on Project Hail Mary specific page in The Numbers on or before 00:00 UTC April 18, 2026 are eligible for determination. Values first appearing after this time do not count, even if they correspond to earlier earnings.
- Handling Reporting Delays and Updates: If box office data is reported with a delay, only values that are published on The Numbers before the deadline are considered. Later updates or backfilled data do not change the outcome unless the originally displayed value is formally corrected before resolution.
- Resolution Timing: The market will be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after 00:00 UTC April 18, 2026, once sufficient data is available to determine whether the threshold was reached before the cutoff.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of ambiguity regarding values or timing, the Domestic Box Office figure and its publication timing on The Numbers take precedence. Any remaining uncertainty will be resolved based on the most consistent interpretation of that figure as presented on the official film page.
Will Project Hail Mary reach $300M within 30 days of release?
About Market
This market centers on whether Project Hail Mary will reach a specified box office milestone before the conclusion of a 30-day period following its release, using that revenue threshold as the defining reference event. The 30-day window serves as a standardized performance benchmark, capturing the most commercially significant early phase of a film’s theatrical run and providing a clear timeframe for evaluating its initial reception. Traders are assessing whether cumulative audience turnout and ticket sales will drive the film’s box office total to the specified level relative to that milestone, weighing factors such as opening performance, release scale, and sustained demand to determine whether the threshold will be reached within the defined period.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if the Domestic Box Office (cumulative total) for Project Hail Mary, as displayed on The Numbers, is equal to or greater than $300,000,000 USD on or before 00:00 UTC April 18, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if the film does not reach this threshold by that deadline. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
- Definition of Domestic Box Office (Cumulative Total): “Domestic Box Office (cumulative total)” refers to the total domestic theatrical revenue displayed as “Domestic Box Office” on The Numbers film page. This value represents the cumulative gross to date (equivalent to total gross); weekend or periodic grosses do not qualify.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source for resolution is the film’s page on The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Project-Hail-Mary-(2026)), specifically the Domestic Box Office figure displayed on that page. Secondary sources may be used for corroboration but cannot override The Numbers’ displayed data.
- Eligible Measurement and Timing: Only Domestic Box Office values visible on Project Hail Mary specific page in The Numbers on or before 00:00 UTC April 18, 2026 are eligible for determination. Values first appearing after this time do not count, even if they correspond to earlier earnings.
- Handling Reporting Delays and Updates: If box office data is reported with a delay, only values that are published on The Numbers before the deadline are considered. Later updates or backfilled data do not change the outcome unless the originally displayed value is formally corrected before resolution.
- Resolution Timing: The market will be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after 00:00 UTC April 18, 2026, once sufficient data is available to determine whether the threshold was reached before the cutoff.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of ambiguity regarding values or timing, the Domestic Box Office figure and its publication timing on The Numbers take precedence. Any remaining uncertainty will be resolved based on the most consistent interpretation of that figure as presented on the official film page.
