This market centers on whether silver will outperform gold in percentage terms by the end of February, comparing the relative returns of the two precious metals over the same time period. The question reflects expectations around differences in volatility and demand drivers, as silver’s higher industrial exposure can lead to larger percentage moves compared with gold’s role as a defensive asset. Traders are assessing whether silver’s price performance, measured by percentage change over the period, will exceed that of gold, turning relative return dynamics into a clear comparative outcome.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if Silver outperforms Gold in percentage terms by the end of the period, meaning the percentage change in the official settlement price of the Active Month CME Silver (SI) futures contract is greater than the percentage change in the official settlement price of the Active Month CME Gold (GC) futures contract, as determined under these rules. It resolves to “NO” if Silver’s percentage change is less than or equal to Gold’s. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to YES or NO.
2. Definition of “Outperform” and Percentage Change: For the purposes of this market, “outperform” means having a strictly higher percentage change over the same comparison period. The percentage change for each contract is calculated using the official settlement price on the final eligible trading day on or before 00:00 UTC on February 28, 2026, compared to the official settlement price on the immediately preceding eligible trading day for that same Active Month contract.
3. Definition of “Active Month”: For Silver (SI), the Active Month is the nearest CME-designated delivery-cycle month (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month, rolling on its First Position Date. For Gold (GC), the Active Month is the nearest CME-designated delivery-cycle month (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month, rolling on its First Position Date. Active Month status is determined independently for each contract according to CME definitions.
4. Applicable Prices and Trading Days: Only the official settlement price of the Active Month, as published by CME Group, is considered for both Silver and Gold. Intraday prices do not count. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the relevant Active Month are eligible; weekends, holidays, and non-publication days are ignored.
5. Official Sources and Evidence: The sole authoritative resolution source is the CME Group website, specifically the daily published Settlement prices for the Active Month Silver (SI) https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.settlements.html and Gold (GC) https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html futures contracts. No alternative price sources are applicable.
6. Settlement Price Finality: The market resolves based on the settlement prices as they first appear on CME Group’s settlement page for the relevant trading days, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
7. Resolution Timing: The market may resolve as soon as the final eligible settlement prices needed for the comparison are available. Final resolution will occur as soon as reasonably practical after 00:00 UTC on February 28, 2026, once the required settlement data is confirmed.
8. Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of ambiguity regarding Active Month designation, settlement timing, or data presentation, CME Group’s definitions and published records take precedence. If uncertainty remains, the resolver will apply these rules based on what a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude from CME’s official settlement data.