This market centers on whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Sony and Marvel Studios' fourth Tom Holland-led Spider-Man film, will gross more than $550 million worldwide across its first seven days of theatrical release beginning July 31, 2026. The $550 million threshold sits at the upper tier of blockbuster opening-week performance, positioning the film alongside the biggest global superhero launches and making the milestone a meaningful line between a record-shattering debut and a merely strong one — a benchmark amplified by presales reported as the strongest for any film in five years. Traders are weighing pre-release tracking data, the franchise's history of billion-dollar grossers such as No Way Home, comparable Marvel opening weeks, and the film's broad international appeal to judge whether it can clear this global milestone in its opening week.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market has two outcomes — YES and NO. It resolves YES if the film's opening-week worldwide gross strictly exceeds $550,000,000 USD, and NO if that figure is $550,000,000 or below. A figure of exactly $550,000,000 resolves NO, as it does not exceed the threshold. It resolves Tie only under the conditions in Rule 5; in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
2. Definition of "Opening-Week Worldwide Gross": This refers to the cumulative global theatrical box office gross, denominated in USD, that the film earns across the first seven days of its release — July 31 through August 6, 2026, inclusive — combining domestic (USA and Canada) and international receipts as reported by the primary sources. The figure is the worldwide box office cumulative gross reported through the end of the seventh day of release; it includes any preview, early-access, or early-territory grosses that the sources roll into that cumulative total, and excludes any grosses earned after August 6, 2026, as well as home-video, streaming, and re-release revenue.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary sources are Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) and The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/), the industry-standard trackers for daily grosses and worldwide totals. For the worldwide cumulative figure, Box Office Mojo takes precedence; The Numbers serves as corroboration. Comscore is used as a tertiary reference only where neither primary source provides a usable figure.
4. Resolution Timing: The market resolves once a final (non-estimate) opening-week worldwide gross is confirmed by the primary sources, no sooner than 24 hours after that figure is published. Studio estimates and provisional daily figures do not trigger resolution; the market remains open until the reported worldwide seven-day cumulative is confirmed as final on Box Office Mojo, with The Numbers used to corroborate.
5. Handling Delays, Data Gaps, and Cancellations: If the primary sources' figures remain in estimated status beyond August 11, 2026, 00:00 UTC, the resolver designates the best available credible box office source (such as Comscore) and resolves on its final confirmed opening-week worldwide figure, applying the same $550,000,000 "strictly exceeds" standard. If the film's theatrical release is postponed such that its first seven days do not fall within the July 31 to August 6, 2026 window, or is cancelled, and no opening-week worldwide gross can be established from any credible source, the market resolves Tie and all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
6. Ambiguities and Disputes: Where the primary sources report materially different final figures, Box Office Mojo's worldwide figure takes precedence, followed by The Numbers, then Comscore. Any figure under active revision or correction is treated as non-final until the source confirms it, and where the split of a reported total between the opening-week window and later dates is ambiguous, the resolver interprets the available data in the manner most consistent with the standard industry definition of a seven-day worldwide opening-week gross.