This market centers on whether The Backrooms, A24's highly anticipated horror film releasing May 29, 2026, will exceed $42 million in U.S. domestic box office receipts over its opening weekend of May 29–31, 2026. As one of the most talked-about horror releases of the summer, The Backrooms arrives with projections spanning a wide range — making the $42 million threshold a meaningful benchmark near the upper bound of early tracking estimates, distinguishing a breakout performance from a more modest genre opening. Traders are weighing pre-release tracking data, A24's horror franchise track record, comparable genre openings, and the film's growing buzz to assess whether The Backrooms can cross this box office milestone in its first three days of wide release.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if The Backrooms' 3-day opening weekend domestic gross, as reported in the final Weekend Box Office Performance figures on The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/), strictly exceeds $42,000,000. It resolves to NO if the figure is $42,000,000 or below. A gross of exactly $42,000,000 resolves NO as it does not exceed the threshold. It resolves to Tie if no final figure can be confirmed from any credible resolution source by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share.

2. Definition of "Opening Weekend Gross": "Opening weekend gross" refers to the Weekend Box Office Performance figures for the 3-day window of May 29–31, 2026, as published on The Numbers under this film's page, which typically includes Thursday preview receipts in the weekend total. Domestic refers to the figures as reported by The Numbers for this market, regardless of whether that figure covers the USA only or USA and Canada.

3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the Weekend Box Office Performance figures for The Backrooms published on The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/). This market will not resolve until the reported figures are confirmed as final (i.e., not studio estimates) on The Numbers. Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) serves as a secondary confirmation source — if there is ambiguity as to whether The Numbers figures are final, this market remains open until both sources have confirmed finalized figures.

4. Resolution Timing: The market resolves as soon as reasonably practical after both The Numbers and Box Office Mojo have published confirmed final figures for the May 29–31 opening weekend. If no final data is available from either source by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible box office reporting source will be selected as the resolution reference.

5. Handling Delays and Data Gaps: If The Numbers' figures remain in estimated status beyond June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the resolver will designate an alternative credible box office source (such as Box Office Mojo or Comscore/PostTrak) and resolve based on that source's final confirmed 3-day opening weekend domestic figure. The same $42,000,000 threshold and "strictly exceeds" standard applies regardless of which source is used.

6. Ambiguities and Disputes: If The Numbers and Box Office Mojo report materially different final figures, The Numbers takes precedence as the primary source. If The Numbers' page for this film does not publish a Weekend Box Office Performance figure in the expected format, the resolver will interpret the available data in a manner most consistent with the market's original intent and the standard industry definition of a 3-day domestic opening weekend gross.