Will USD/IDR close above or below 15,800 IDR by Feb 14?
About Market
This market centers on whether the USD/IDR exchange rate will close above or below 15,800, based on the official end-of-day price. The question reflects expectations around short-term movements in the Indonesian rupiah relative to the U.S. dollar, which can be influenced by factors such as Bank Indonesia policy decisions, U.S. interest-rate expectations, inflation data, capital flows, and broader global risk sentiment. Traders are assessing whether prevailing macroeconomic pressures and market dynamics will push the exchange rate to finish above or below this key psychological level at the close.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves to ABOVE (USD/IDR closes above 15,800 IDR) if the official USD/IDR closing price is strictly greater than 15,800 for the relevant trading day prior to the market end time. It resolves to BELOW (USD/IDR closes below 15,800 IDR) if the official closing price is strictly less than or equal to 15,800. There is no TIE outcome in this market. - Definition of “Close”:
For the purposes of this market, “close” refers to the official end-of-day USD/IDR reference or closing rate for the applicable trading day. Intraday prices, highs, lows, averages, or midpoint quotes do not qualify. - Applicable Date and Cutoff:
The applicable closing price is the official close for the trading day immediately preceding 00:00 UTC on 14 February 2026. Any prices published after this cutoff are not considered. - Official Sources and Evidence:
Resolution is based primarily on the official USD/IDR reference or closing rate published by Bank Indonesia. If Bank Indonesia does not publish a same-day closing rate, a widely used institutional FX benchmark provider (such as Reuters or Bloomberg) may be used as a secondary source for confirmation only. - Source Priority:
In cases where multiple sources are available, Bank Indonesia is the authoritative source. Secondary institutional FX providers may corroborate timing or values but may not override Bank Indonesia data. - Non-Trading Days:
If the specified date is a non-trading day in Indonesia, the market resolves based on the most recent prior trading day’s official closing rate. - Data Revisions and Finality:
The market resolves using the closing rate as first officially published by the primary source. Subsequent revisions or corrections do not affect the outcome unless the original value is formally withdrawn. - Ambiguities and Disputes:
In cases of conflicting data or unclear publication timing, resolution defaults to the primary source and a conservative interpretation consistent with these rules. Any ambiguity not explicitly addressed resolves in favor of BELOW (USD/IDR closes below 15,800 IDR).
Will USD/IDR close above or below 15,800 IDR by Feb 14?
About Market
This market centers on whether the USD/IDR exchange rate will close above or below 15,800, based on the official end-of-day price. The question reflects expectations around short-term movements in the Indonesian rupiah relative to the U.S. dollar, which can be influenced by factors such as Bank Indonesia policy decisions, U.S. interest-rate expectations, inflation data, capital flows, and broader global risk sentiment. Traders are assessing whether prevailing macroeconomic pressures and market dynamics will push the exchange rate to finish above or below this key psychological level at the close.
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves to ABOVE (USD/IDR closes above 15,800 IDR) if the official USD/IDR closing price is strictly greater than 15,800 for the relevant trading day prior to the market end time. It resolves to BELOW (USD/IDR closes below 15,800 IDR) if the official closing price is strictly less than or equal to 15,800. There is no TIE outcome in this market. - Definition of “Close”:
For the purposes of this market, “close” refers to the official end-of-day USD/IDR reference or closing rate for the applicable trading day. Intraday prices, highs, lows, averages, or midpoint quotes do not qualify. - Applicable Date and Cutoff:
The applicable closing price is the official close for the trading day immediately preceding 00:00 UTC on 14 February 2026. Any prices published after this cutoff are not considered. - Official Sources and Evidence:
Resolution is based primarily on the official USD/IDR reference or closing rate published by Bank Indonesia. If Bank Indonesia does not publish a same-day closing rate, a widely used institutional FX benchmark provider (such as Reuters or Bloomberg) may be used as a secondary source for confirmation only. - Source Priority:
In cases where multiple sources are available, Bank Indonesia is the authoritative source. Secondary institutional FX providers may corroborate timing or values but may not override Bank Indonesia data. - Non-Trading Days:
If the specified date is a non-trading day in Indonesia, the market resolves based on the most recent prior trading day’s official closing rate. - Data Revisions and Finality:
The market resolves using the closing rate as first officially published by the primary source. Subsequent revisions or corrections do not affect the outcome unless the original value is formally withdrawn. - Ambiguities and Disputes:
In cases of conflicting data or unclear publication timing, resolution defaults to the primary source and a conservative interpretation consistent with these rules. Any ambiguity not explicitly addressed resolves in favor of BELOW (USD/IDR closes below 15,800 IDR).
