Foresight Logo

Will USD/IDR exceed 17,000 before April?

About Market

Market Summary

This market centers on whether USD/IDR will exceed 17,000 before April, using the arrival of April 1 at 00:00 UTC as the reference milestone for the comparison. The transition into April establishes a fixed temporal boundary, creating a defined window during which any qualifying move above that exchange rate must occur. Traders are assessing whether movements in the U.S. dollar against the Indonesian rupiah will push the official reference rate beyond the 17,000 level prior to that cutoff, turning the approach of April into a clear time-based marker against which the currency threshold is measured.

Rules
  1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if the official USD/IDR reference rate published by Bank Indonesia is strictly greater than 17,000 at any time before 00:00 UTC April 1, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if no such qualifying rate is published before that deadline. A rate equal to 17,000 does not qualify. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
  2. Definition of Reference Rate: “USD/IDR reference rate” refers exclusively to the official exchange rate published by Bank Indonesia as its authoritative daily reference rate. Intraday market quotes, offshore rates, or unofficial sources do not count.
  3. Time Standard and Eligible Publications: All determinations are based on the publication date and time of the official reference rate in UTC. Only reference rates officially published prior to 00:00 UTC April 1, 2026 are eligible for consideration.
  4. Authoritative Source and Evidence: Resolution is based exclusively on data released by Bank Indonesia through its official publications or website. Secondary financial data providers may be used solely for confirmation and may not override Bank Indonesia’s official figures.
  5. Revisions and Corrections: The market resolves according to the reference rate as first officially published. Subsequent revisions alter the outcome only if Bank Indonesia formally corrects or withdraws the original published rate before resolution.
  6. Resolution Timing: The market resolves as soon as reasonably practical after a qualifying reference rate above 17,000 is published, or after 00:00 UTC April 1, 2026 if no such event occurs.