Will a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake occur globally in May 2026?
About Market
This market centers on whether a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake will be officially recorded anywhere in the world during May 2026, using the USGS earthquake catalog as the authoritative reference for qualifying seismic events. Earthquakes at or above magnitude 7.0 represent major seismic events capable of causing widespread damage and are globally recognized as a critical threshold in seismology and disaster preparedness frameworks. Traders are evaluating historical seismic frequency data, active tectonic zones, and real-time monitoring feeds to assess whether at least one qualifying event will be formally recorded within the defined calendar month.
1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater is officially recorded anywhere in the world and listed in the USGS earthquake catalog in May 2026. It resolves to "No" if no such event is recorded by that deadline. There is no Tie outcome in this market.
2. Definition of Qualifying Seismic Event: A qualifying event is any earthquake assigned a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.0 or greater by the USGS, with an origin time between 00:00 UTC May 1, 2026 and 23:59 UTC May 31, 2026 inclusive. The event may occur anywhere globally. Preliminary magnitudes are eligible for resolution; however, if USGS subsequently revises a magnitude below 7.0 before the market resolves, that event no longer qualifies. If a magnitude is revised upward to 7.0 or greater before resolution, it becomes a qualifying event.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source for resolution is the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/). Secondary sources such as EMSC (European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre) or national seismological agencies may be used for corroboration only and cannot override USGS official records.
4. Resolution Timing: The market resolves as soon as reasonably practical after a qualifying seismic event is confirmed in the USGS catalog, or after 23:59 UTC May 31, 2026 if no qualifying event has been recorded. A 24-hour waiting period applies after the deadline before a "No" resolution is confirmed, to allow for any late catalog updates.
5. Magnitude Revisions and Data Updates: USGS routinely updates magnitude estimates in the hours and days following a seismic event. Resolution uses the USGS-assigned magnitude at the time of resolution. If a magnitude revision after resolution would have changed the outcome, the resolution stands as originally determined.
6. Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting magnitude data between sources, the USGS catalog takes precedence. Any remaining ambiguity is resolved by applying these rules to the official USGS published data as interpreted by a reasonable observer.
Will a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake occur globally in May 2026?
About Market
This market centers on whether a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake will be officially recorded anywhere in the world during May 2026, using the USGS earthquake catalog as the authoritative reference for qualifying seismic events. Earthquakes at or above magnitude 7.0 represent major seismic events capable of causing widespread damage and are globally recognized as a critical threshold in seismology and disaster preparedness frameworks. Traders are evaluating historical seismic frequency data, active tectonic zones, and real-time monitoring feeds to assess whether at least one qualifying event will be formally recorded within the defined calendar month.
1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater is officially recorded anywhere in the world and listed in the USGS earthquake catalog in May 2026. It resolves to "No" if no such event is recorded by that deadline. There is no Tie outcome in this market.
2. Definition of Qualifying Seismic Event: A qualifying event is any earthquake assigned a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.0 or greater by the USGS, with an origin time between 00:00 UTC May 1, 2026 and 23:59 UTC May 31, 2026 inclusive. The event may occur anywhere globally. Preliminary magnitudes are eligible for resolution; however, if USGS subsequently revises a magnitude below 7.0 before the market resolves, that event no longer qualifies. If a magnitude is revised upward to 7.0 or greater before resolution, it becomes a qualifying event.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary source for resolution is the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/). Secondary sources such as EMSC (European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre) or national seismological agencies may be used for corroboration only and cannot override USGS official records.
4. Resolution Timing: The market resolves as soon as reasonably practical after a qualifying seismic event is confirmed in the USGS catalog, or after 23:59 UTC May 31, 2026 if no qualifying event has been recorded. A 24-hour waiting period applies after the deadline before a "No" resolution is confirmed, to allow for any late catalog updates.
5. Magnitude Revisions and Data Updates: USGS routinely updates magnitude estimates in the hours and days following a seismic event. Resolution uses the USGS-assigned magnitude at the time of resolution. If a magnitude revision after resolution would have changed the outcome, the resolution stands as originally determined.
6. Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting magnitude data between sources, the USGS catalog takes precedence. Any remaining ambiguity is resolved by applying these rules to the official USGS published data as interpreted by a reasonable observer.
