This market centers on whether $HYPE will outperform all tokens commonly characterized as “shitcoins” with a market capitalization above $1 billion (PEPE, DOGE, SHIBA, and MARKETCORE), as tracked on CoinGecko, when measured in USD percentage returns. The question is rooted in a public exchange that began with a tweet by Kyle Samani (@KyleSamani, co-founder and Managing Partner of Multicoin Capital, Chairman of Forward Industries), which was subsequently replied to by Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes, co-founder of BitMEX), sparking debate over whether $HYPE represents a genuine outlier capable of outperforming the broader universe of large-cap speculative tokens. Traders are evaluating whether $HYPE’s narrative, adoption dynamics, and market momentum can translate into superior performance relative to every other qualifying $1B+ market-cap token, turning a provocative social-media claim into a concrete, comparative outcome.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria:
   This market resolves to “YES” if $HYPE achieves a strictly higher percentage return in USD terms than each of PEPE, DOGE, SHIBA, and MARKETCORE over the evaluation period ending at 00:00 UTC on July 31, 2026. It resolves to “NO” if any of these comparison tokens equals or exceeds $HYPE’s percentage return, or if the outcome cannot be conclusively determined under these rules. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to YES or NO.
2. Definition of “Outperform” and Return Calculation:
   “Outperform” means having a higher percentage return calculated as (end price − start price) / start price, using the same calculation methodology for all assets. All prices used in the calculation are USD-denominated.
3. Definition of “Shitcoin”:
   For the purposes of this market, the term “shitcoin” has no qualitative, reputational, or subjective meaning. It refers exclusively to the following specific cryptocurrency tokens: PEPE, DOGE, SHIBA, and MARKETCORE, as listed on CoinGecko. No judgment about utility, legitimacy, technology, or investment quality is implied or considered.
4. Definition of Eligible Comparison Set:
   The comparison set consists only of the following tokens, and no others: PEPE, DOGE, SHIBA, and MARKETCORE, each as identified by their respective CoinGecko listings. $HYPE is explicitly excluded from the comparison set.
5. Price Sources and Adjustments:
   All start and end prices are sourced from CoinGecko, using each token’s listed USD price. Token events such as redenominations, splits, migrations, rebrands, or contract upgrades are handled by relying on CoinGecko’s adjusted historical price data to reflect equivalent economic value.
6. Delistings, Data Gaps, and Anomalies:
   If any comparison token is delisted or removed from CoinGecko during the evaluation period, the last valid available CoinGecko price is used for return calculation. Obvious data errors, anomalous price spikes, or incorrect listings may be disregarded at the resolver’s discretion to preserve a fair and consistent comparison.
7. Official Sources and Evidence:
   The sole primary and authoritative source for prices and token identification is CoinGecko. Secondary sources may be used only for corroboration if CoinGecko data is incomplete or internally inconsistent, and may not override clear CoinGecko records.
8. Resolution Timing and Disputes:
   The market resolves after 00:00 UTC on July 31, 2026, once all necessary price data is available to compute returns for $HYPE and each comparison token. In cases of ambiguity not explicitly covered by these rules, resolution defaults to a conservative interpretation, and any unresolved uncertainty results in a NO outcome.