This market centers on how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.6 or greater will occur in Asia between July 3 and July 17, 2026, treating the end of this observation window as the reference point for comparing seismic activity within the region. The closing of the time window serves as a clear milestone because it defines the complete set of qualifying seismic events that can be counted toward the final total, which is then measured against the market's threshold of more than three events. Traders are assessing how frequently qualifying earthquakes will occur before this cutoff, using historical seismic patterns and real-time monitoring data to determine whether the final count will land above, or at or below, the three-event line.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "YES" if more than three qualifying earthquakes — that is, four or more — of magnitude 5.6 or greater occur in Asia between 2026-07-03 00:00 UTC and 23:59 UTC on July 17, 2026. It resolves to "NO" if three or fewer qualifying earthquakes (zero, one, two, or three) are recorded within that timeframe. It resolves to Tie if the official data source is unavailable or no final count can be confirmed by July 17, 2026; in the event of a Tie resolution, all positions settle at $0.50 per share.
2. Definition of Qualifying Earthquake: A qualifying earthquake is any seismic event recorded with a magnitude of 5.6 or greater whose epicenter is located within the geographic boundaries of Asia as classified by the resolution source. Each distinct event recorded under its own USGS event identifier counts once toward the total, and foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks each count separately provided each independently meets the magnitude threshold.
3. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake database (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), filtered for the Asia region and magnitude ≥ 5.6 over the observation window. Official USGS records of event time, magnitude, and location are determinative. Secondary scientific or governmental seismic databases, such as the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre or relevant national agencies, may be used for corroboration but cannot override USGS records.
4. Resolution Timing: This market will not resolve until after 23:59 UTC on July 17, 2026. If a qualifying earthquake is recorded on the final day of the observation window, resolution may be delayed for up to 24 hours to allow magnitude or classification revisions. After that period, resolution will occur using the most recent USGS data, and is expected to be finalized by 23:59 UTC on July 18, 2026.
5. Handling Revisions, Delays, and Data Updates: If the USGS later revises an earthquake's magnitude below 5.6, or updates its location to outside Asia, that event will not count toward the total. If an event's magnitude is revised upward to 5.8 or higher within the 24-hour revision window, it will count. The final count used for resolution is the one supported by USGS data after the revision window closes.
6. Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting seismic records, USGS published data takes precedence. If classification uncertainties remain — including epicenters near a continental boundary — determinations will be made based on the most recent official USGS dataset available after the revision window.