Will the Aave Protocol Fork Within 30 Days of Vote Resolution?
About Market
This market predicts whether a substantive fork of the Aave protocol occurs within 30 days after the resolution of the governance vote on "[ARFC] $AAVE token alignment. Phase 1 - Ownership," which concludes around December 26, 2025. The fork must involve new smart contracts replicating Aave's core lending functionality, be publicly announced by a major delegate, and achieve over $10M in TVL to indicate genuine adoption amid ongoing tensions between Aave Labs and DAO delegates.
1. The market resolves to "Yes" if all the following conditions are met:
- Within 30 days following the vote resolution (starting December 27, 2025, and ending January 26, 2026), a new smart contract deployment is verifiable on Etherscan or equivalent blockchain explorers, substantially mirroring Aave's core lending logic (e.g., borrowing, lending, interest rate models, and collateral management from V3 or V4).
- The fork is publicly announced by a major Aave delegate or contributor, such as Marc Zeller (ACI), Ernesto Boado (BGD), or equivalent figures, via official channels like X (formerly Twitter), the Aave governance forum, or other recognized DAO communication platforms.
- The forked protocol attracts more than $10M in Total Value Locked (TVL) within the 30-day window, demonstrating real user adoption rather than speculative or trivial activity. TVL must be sustained and verifiable, excluding self-deposits or manipulated inflows.
2. Resolution sources include:
- Etherscan or similar blockchain explorers for contract deployment and verification.
- DefiLlama or comparable DeFi analytics platforms for TVL measurement.
- Official Aave governance forum (governance.aave.com), delegate X accounts (e.g., @marczeller, @eboado), or other authenticated announcements for public declarations.
3. The market resolves "No" if any condition is not fully met, including:
- No qualifying contract deployment occurs.
- Announcements are absent, unofficial, or not from major delegates.
- TVL remains at or below $10M, or the fork is limited to minor changes like UI modifications without core contract alterations.
- Trivial or gaming attempts, such as empty announcements without substantive adoption.
- Only forks stemming from the vote's outcome (e.g., disputes over brand ownership, V4 development, or DAO-Labs tensions) qualify. Unrelated forks or pre-existing projects do not count.
4. Resolution will occur within 7 days after the 30-day window (by February 2, 2026), allowing time for verification from official and consensus sources. If data is ambiguous, the market resolves "No" to prioritize anti-gaming measures.
Will the Aave Protocol Fork Within 30 Days of Vote Resolution?
About Market
This market predicts whether a substantive fork of the Aave protocol occurs within 30 days after the resolution of the governance vote on "[ARFC] $AAVE token alignment. Phase 1 - Ownership," which concludes around December 26, 2025. The fork must involve new smart contracts replicating Aave's core lending functionality, be publicly announced by a major delegate, and achieve over $10M in TVL to indicate genuine adoption amid ongoing tensions between Aave Labs and DAO delegates.
1. The market resolves to "Yes" if all the following conditions are met:
- Within 30 days following the vote resolution (starting December 27, 2025, and ending January 26, 2026), a new smart contract deployment is verifiable on Etherscan or equivalent blockchain explorers, substantially mirroring Aave's core lending logic (e.g., borrowing, lending, interest rate models, and collateral management from V3 or V4).
- The fork is publicly announced by a major Aave delegate or contributor, such as Marc Zeller (ACI), Ernesto Boado (BGD), or equivalent figures, via official channels like X (formerly Twitter), the Aave governance forum, or other recognized DAO communication platforms.
- The forked protocol attracts more than $10M in Total Value Locked (TVL) within the 30-day window, demonstrating real user adoption rather than speculative or trivial activity. TVL must be sustained and verifiable, excluding self-deposits or manipulated inflows.
2. Resolution sources include:
- Etherscan or similar blockchain explorers for contract deployment and verification.
- DefiLlama or comparable DeFi analytics platforms for TVL measurement.
- Official Aave governance forum (governance.aave.com), delegate X accounts (e.g., @marczeller, @eboado), or other authenticated announcements for public declarations.
3. The market resolves "No" if any condition is not fully met, including:
- No qualifying contract deployment occurs.
- Announcements are absent, unofficial, or not from major delegates.
- TVL remains at or below $10M, or the fork is limited to minor changes like UI modifications without core contract alterations.
- Trivial or gaming attempts, such as empty announcements without substantive adoption.
- Only forks stemming from the vote's outcome (e.g., disputes over brand ownership, V4 development, or DAO-Labs tensions) qualify. Unrelated forks or pre-existing projects do not count.
4. Resolution will occur within 7 days after the 30-day window (by February 2, 2026), allowing time for verification from official and consensus sources. If data is ambiguous, the market resolves "No" to prioritize anti-gaming measures.
