Will the Bank of England raise interest rates on Feb 5?
About Market
Market Summary
This market centers on whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates at its scheduled Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision on February 5. The question reflects ongoing scrutiny of the UK’s monetary policy stance amid inflation trends, economic growth conditions, and labor-market signals. Traders are weighing recent economic data, MPC voting dynamics, and guidance from Bank officials to assess whether policymakers will opt for a rate hike or maintain the current policy setting at this meeting.
Rules
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if the Bank of England increases the Bank Rate at its February 5, 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, meaning the upper bound of the Bank Rate is higher than its level immediately prior to that meeting. It resolves to “NO” if the Bank Rate is unchanged or reduced. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to YES or NO.
- Definition of “Raise Interest Rates”: For the purposes of this market, a “raise” means any positive change in the Bank Rate announced as part of the MPC’s February 2026 decision, regardless of magnitude. If the change is not expressed in standard increments, the determination of whether a raise occurred is based solely on whether the post-meeting rate is higher than the pre-meeting rate.
- Applicable Decision and Timing Cutoff: Only the Bank of England MPC decision for February 2026 is considered. The market ends at 12:00 UTC on February 5, 2026, and no later policy actions or statements affect the outcome.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the official Bank of England publication of the February 2026 MPC decision and accompanying statement. A consensus of credible reporting from major financial news outlets may be used to corroborate the decision if the official release is delayed, but cannot override later official Bank of England information.
- Resolution Timing: The market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England releases its official statement for the February 2026 meeting containing the Bank Rate decision. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled MPC meeting, the market resolves to “NO.”
- Handling Revisions, Delays, and Cancellations: If the February 2026 MPC meeting is postponed but later results in an official Bank Rate decision, that decision determines the outcome. Subsequent revisions, clarifications, or commentary that do not change the officially announced Bank Rate do not affect resolution.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting reports, later-dated official Bank of England publications take precedence. If ambiguity remains, the resolver will determine whether a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude that the Bank Rate announced for February 2026 was higher than its level immediately prior to the meeting.
Will the Bank of England raise interest rates on Feb 5?
About Market
Market Summary
This market centers on whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates at its scheduled Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision on February 5. The question reflects ongoing scrutiny of the UK’s monetary policy stance amid inflation trends, economic growth conditions, and labor-market signals. Traders are weighing recent economic data, MPC voting dynamics, and guidance from Bank officials to assess whether policymakers will opt for a rate hike or maintain the current policy setting at this meeting.
Rules
- Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to “YES” if the Bank of England increases the Bank Rate at its February 5, 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, meaning the upper bound of the Bank Rate is higher than its level immediately prior to that meeting. It resolves to “NO” if the Bank Rate is unchanged or reduced. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to YES or NO.
- Definition of “Raise Interest Rates”: For the purposes of this market, a “raise” means any positive change in the Bank Rate announced as part of the MPC’s February 2026 decision, regardless of magnitude. If the change is not expressed in standard increments, the determination of whether a raise occurred is based solely on whether the post-meeting rate is higher than the pre-meeting rate.
- Applicable Decision and Timing Cutoff: Only the Bank of England MPC decision for February 2026 is considered. The market ends at 12:00 UTC on February 5, 2026, and no later policy actions or statements affect the outcome.
- Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the official Bank of England publication of the February 2026 MPC decision and accompanying statement. A consensus of credible reporting from major financial news outlets may be used to corroborate the decision if the official release is delayed, but cannot override later official Bank of England information.
- Resolution Timing: The market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England releases its official statement for the February 2026 meeting containing the Bank Rate decision. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled MPC meeting, the market resolves to “NO.”
- Handling Revisions, Delays, and Cancellations: If the February 2026 MPC meeting is postponed but later results in an official Bank Rate decision, that decision determines the outcome. Subsequent revisions, clarifications, or commentary that do not change the officially announced Bank Rate do not affect resolution.
- Ambiguities and Disputes: In cases of conflicting reports, later-dated official Bank of England publications take precedence. If ambiguity remains, the resolver will determine whether a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude that the Bank Rate announced for February 2026 was higher than its level immediately prior to the meeting.
