This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will adjust its benchmark interest rates at the January 2026 FOMC meeting. The question arises amid ongoing debates over inflation trends, economic growth, labor market conditions, and financial stability. Traders are weighing Fed guidance, recent economic data, and market expectations to assess the likelihood of a rate hike, cut, or pause in the U.S. monetary policy cycle.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve changes the target range for the federal funds rate from its level in effect immediately prior to the first such January 2026 decision. The market resolves to No if no such change to the target range for the federal funds rate takes effect during that period. There is no TIE outcome in this market; it resolves only to Yes or No.
2. Definition of “Change the Interest Rates”: For this market, “change the interest rates” means any decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (or, if applicable, the Board of Governors acting in place of the FOMC) that alters either the upper or lower bound of the target range for the federal funds rate, with an effective date within the period specified in Rule 1. It is sufficient that the target range is changed at least once during January 2026, even if it is later changed again (including back to its prior level) before 28 January 2026 18:30:00 UTC.
3. Scope and Exclusions: The market does not consider as a qualifying change: (a) adjustments only to other Federal Reserve administered rates (e.g., discount rate, interest on reserve balances, overnight RRP rate) that do not accompany a change in the target federal funds rate range; or (b) changes announced during January 2026 but with effective dates outside the period in Rule 1. Forward guidance, changes in projections, or verbal indications of future rate moves without an actual implemented target range change do not count.
4. Official Sources and Evidence: Primary sources, in order of priority, are (a) official FOMC statements and implementation notes, (b) releases and historical policy rate tables on the Federal Reserve’s official website, and (c) Federal Reserve statistical publications that record the target range for the federal funds rate. Secondary sources include major international financial news agencies and reputable financial data providers that summarize or reproduce these decisions; they may be used to confirm timing and detect obvious errors but cannot override clear, later-dated primary documentation.
5. Resolution Timing: The market will normally be resolved as soon as reasonably practical after 28 January 2026 18:30:00 UTC, the specified end date and time for this market, once the relevant policy decision(s) and effective dates are confirmed from the sources in Rule 4. If, at that time, it is clear from primary sources that at least one qualifying target range change took effect during the period in Rule 1, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise it resolves to No.
6. Handling Ambiguities and Data Conflicts: If there is any discrepancy between secondary sources and Federal Reserve primary publications regarding whether and when a target range change occurred, the clear, later-dated primary Federal Reserve documentation prevails. In any remaining borderline or ambiguous case not explicitly covered above, the resolver will apply these rules to determine whether a reasonable, well-informed observer would conclude that the Federal Reserve did or did not implement at least one change to the target range for the federal funds rate during the defined January 2026 window.