Will the war between Iran and America end before April 4th?
About Market
This prediction market resolves whether the direct military conflict between the United States and Iran will end or stop before April 4, 2026.
The market has two possible outcomes: “Yes” if, before April 4, 2026 (23:59 UTC on April 3), there is a verified and clearly established cessation of direct hostilities between the United States and Iran, such as a mutually recognized ceasefire, formal agreement, or sustained halt in military operations. It resolves to “No” if no such qualifying cessation occurs before the deadline.
For the purposes of this market, the conflict is considered ongoing as long as direct military actions or hostilities continue. Informal de-escalation, political statements, diplomatic talks, or temporary pauses do not qualify as ending the conflict.
Resolution relies primarily on official government statements from the United States and Iran, with reputable secondary sources used for verification as outlined in the market rules.
1. Market Trading Cutoff:
Trading in this market will remain open until April 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC. After this time, no new positions may be opened, increased, or modified. Existing positions remain eligible for resolution under the rules below.
2. Definition of “Before April 4”:
“Before April 4” is defined as up to and including April 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC. Any event occurring on or after April 4, 2026 will not count toward a “Yes” resolution.
3. Criteria for “Yes” Resolution:
This market resolves to “Yes” only if, before the deadline, there is a verified and clearly established end or cessation of direct military conflict between the United States and Iran, including at least one of the following:
An official and mutually recognized ceasefire announcement.
A formal truce, peace agreement, or suspension of military operations.
A verifiable and sustained halt of direct hostilities between U.S. and Iranian forces, confirmed by reliable sources.
4. What Does NOT Qualify as Ending or Stopping the War:
The following do not qualify for a “Yes” resolution:
Political or media statements without confirmed operational changes.
Informal or temporary de-escalation.
Diplomatic talks or mediation without a formal agreement.
One-sided ceasefires not adhered to by both parties.
Short-term pauses in fighting that do not clearly establish cessation.
5. Criteria for “No” Resolution:
This market resolves to “No” if no qualifying cessation or end of direct conflict is verified before April 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC.
6. Data Sources:
Primary sources include official statements from:
The United States government
The Iranian government
Official defense or foreign affairs authorities
Secondary sources may include: Reuters, Associated Press (AP), BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, Financial Times, or other reputable global media outlets.
In case of conflict, primary sources prevail.
7. Verification Standard:
Speculation, analysis, or unofficial reporting is insufficient. The cessation must be clearly announced or verifiably confirmed by reliable sources.
8. Proxy or Indirect Conflict:
Actions involving proxy groups or third parties do not qualify unless part of a formal agreement that explicitly ends or suspends direct conflict between the United States and Iran.
9. Conflicting or Incomplete Information:
If reporting is unclear or contradictory, the most credible and consistent information from approved sources will be used. If no clear confirmation exists before the deadline, the market resolves to “No.”
10. Post-Deadline Events:
Any ceasefire, agreement, or cessation occurring after April 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC will not affect the outcome.
11. Scope of Interpretation:
This market refers specifically to direct military conflict between the United States and Iran, not general political tensions, sanctions, or rhetorical escalations.
12. General Provisions:
Terminology such as war, conflict, hostilities, or military operations is interpreted broadly but must involve direct engagement.
Resolution is based solely on verifiable public information from the listed sources.
All resolution decisions are final unless a clear and verifiable error is identified.
Will the war between Iran and America end before April 4th?
About Market
This prediction market resolves whether the direct military conflict between the United States and Iran will end or stop before April 4, 2026.
The market has two possible outcomes: “Yes” if, before April 4, 2026 (23:59 UTC on April 3), there is a verified and clearly established cessation of direct hostilities between the United States and Iran, such as a mutually recognized ceasefire, formal agreement, or sustained halt in military operations. It resolves to “No” if no such qualifying cessation occurs before the deadline.
For the purposes of this market, the conflict is considered ongoing as long as direct military actions or hostilities continue. Informal de-escalation, political statements, diplomatic talks, or temporary pauses do not qualify as ending the conflict.
Resolution relies primarily on official government statements from the United States and Iran, with reputable secondary sources used for verification as outlined in the market rules.
1. Market Trading Cutoff:
Trading in this market will remain open until April 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC. After this time, no new positions may be opened, increased, or modified. Existing positions remain eligible for resolution under the rules below.
2. Definition of “Before April 4”:
“Before April 4” is defined as up to and including April 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC. Any event occurring on or after April 4, 2026 will not count toward a “Yes” resolution.
3. Criteria for “Yes” Resolution:
This market resolves to “Yes” only if, before the deadline, there is a verified and clearly established end or cessation of direct military conflict between the United States and Iran, including at least one of the following:
An official and mutually recognized ceasefire announcement.
A formal truce, peace agreement, or suspension of military operations.
A verifiable and sustained halt of direct hostilities between U.S. and Iranian forces, confirmed by reliable sources.
4. What Does NOT Qualify as Ending or Stopping the War:
The following do not qualify for a “Yes” resolution:
Political or media statements without confirmed operational changes.
Informal or temporary de-escalation.
Diplomatic talks or mediation without a formal agreement.
One-sided ceasefires not adhered to by both parties.
Short-term pauses in fighting that do not clearly establish cessation.
5. Criteria for “No” Resolution:
This market resolves to “No” if no qualifying cessation or end of direct conflict is verified before April 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC.
6. Data Sources:
Primary sources include official statements from:
The United States government
The Iranian government
Official defense or foreign affairs authorities
Secondary sources may include: Reuters, Associated Press (AP), BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, Financial Times, or other reputable global media outlets.
In case of conflict, primary sources prevail.
7. Verification Standard:
Speculation, analysis, or unofficial reporting is insufficient. The cessation must be clearly announced or verifiably confirmed by reliable sources.
8. Proxy or Indirect Conflict:
Actions involving proxy groups or third parties do not qualify unless part of a formal agreement that explicitly ends or suspends direct conflict between the United States and Iran.
9. Conflicting or Incomplete Information:
If reporting is unclear or contradictory, the most credible and consistent information from approved sources will be used. If no clear confirmation exists before the deadline, the market resolves to “No.”
10. Post-Deadline Events:
Any ceasefire, agreement, or cessation occurring after April 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC will not affect the outcome.
11. Scope of Interpretation:
This market refers specifically to direct military conflict between the United States and Iran, not general political tensions, sanctions, or rhetorical escalations.
12. General Provisions:
Terminology such as war, conflict, hostilities, or military operations is interpreted broadly but must involve direct engagement.
Resolution is based solely on verifiable public information from the listed sources.
All resolution decisions are final unless a clear and verifiable error is identified.
